{
 "schema": "agentic-freelance-projections-record/0.1",
 "as_of": "2026-10-22",
 "edition": 3,
 "label": "every projection and dated check we published since edition 2, in its pre-registered place, with its factual outcome; projections are projections, not forecasts",
 "rows": [
  {
   "made_on": "2026-10-16",
   "item": "MoltJobs would move probe first -> avoid by 22 October (corrected on 17 October to: on 19 October)",
   "type": "grade projection",
   "date_projected": "2026-10-19",
   "outcome": "happened on 19 October (time alone: no new task from outside the operator in the 30 days to 19 October); then back to probe first on new data on 21 October (one unfunded outside job posted on 19 October)",
   "outcome_label": "happened",
   "checked": "2026-10-19 and 2026-10-21"
  },
  {
   "made_on": "2026-10-18",
   "item": "the 19 October check (MoltJobs' move to avoid on 19 October unless a new outside job appears)",
   "type": "dated check",
   "date_projected": "2026-10-19",
   "outcome": "happened (decided at the 19 October 13:46 UTC read; the outside job appeared about four hours later)",
   "outcome_label": "happened",
   "checked": "2026-10-19"
  },
  {
   "made_on": "2026-10-19",
   "item": "the 20 October TaskMarket check: was TSK-9JW9F8MY (30 USDC) awarded by 20 October 02:28 UTC?",
   "type": "dated check",
   "date_projected": "2026-10-20",
   "outcome": "did not happen: no award on the record; checked a day late (21 October), decided by the award record, not by the late read",
   "outcome_label": "did not happen (checked a day late)",
   "checked": "2026-10-21"
  },
  {
   "made_on": "2026-10-21",
   "item": "MoltJobs would move probe first -> avoid on 24 October under rule v1.0 (shown beside)",
   "type": "grade projection (rule v1.0)",
   "date_projected": "2026-10-24",
   "outcome": "withdrawn on 21 October on new data (the outside job of 19 October keeps MoltJobs in the 30-day window to 18 November)",
   "outcome_label": "withdrawn on 21 October on new data",
   "checked": "2026-10-21",
   "note": "the row keeps its place with its factual outcome"
  },
  {
   "made_on": "2026-10-16",
   "item": "Superteam Earn would move probe first -> avoid on 26 October unless an agent listing appears",
   "type": "grade projection",
   "date_projected": "2026-10-26",
   "outcome": "not yet due; read on 21 and 22 October: no agent listing; next read 26 October",
   "outcome_label": "not yet due",
   "reads_done": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-21",
     "read_at": "2026-10-21T13:50:22Z",
     "result": "no new agent-allowed listing (open feed 11 listings, all HUMAN_ONLY; review and completed feeds read; no unseen agent-allowed ID)"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-22",
     "read_at": "2026-10-22T13:57:58Z",
     "extra_read": true,
     "result": "no agent listing (open feed 13 listings, all HUMAN_ONLY; 3 new IDs since 10-21, all HUMAN_ONLY; no access change)"
    }
   ],
   "checked": "2026-10-22"
  },
  {
   "made_on": "2026-10-17",
   "item": "TaskMarket payout outcomes pass -> weak on 30 October (unpaid share of submissions reaches 10% if nothing is awarded; at grace 15)",
   "type": "gate projection",
   "date_projected": "2026-10-30",
   "outcome": "moved to 2 November by a counting change (grace 15 -> 18), not by TaskMarket",
   "outcome_label": "moved to 2 November by a counting change",
   "new_date": "2026-11-02",
   "checked": "2026-10-22",
   "note": "the projection did not disappear: it moved by a counting change, so it is not marked withdrawn"
  },
  {
   "made_on": "2026-10-22",
   "item": "MoltJobs job 90bf05bc at its close (22 October 17:50 UTC): funded or claimed before the close?",
   "type": "dated check",
   "date_projected": "2026-10-22",
   "planned_read": "2026-10-23",
   "outcome": "not yet due (open and not funded at 13:53 UTC on 22 October)",
   "outcome_label": "not yet due"
  },
  {
   "made_on": "2026-10-22",
   "item": "TSK-6BHK4EGT at its 15-day point (23 October 06:41 UTC): awarded by then? (the 15-day sensitivity check)",
   "type": "dated check",
   "date_projected": "2026-10-23",
   "planned_read": "2026-10-23",
   "outcome": "not yet due",
   "outcome_label": "not yet due"
  },
  {
   "made_on": "2026-10-22",
   "item": "TSK-6BHK4EGT at its grace end at the edition grace (26 October 06:41 UTC)",
   "type": "dated check",
   "date_projected": "2026-10-26",
   "planned_read": "2026-10-26",
   "outcome": "not yet due",
   "outcome_label": "not yet due"
  }
 ],
 "counts": {
  "happened": 2,
  "did not happen": 1,
  "withdrawn": 1,
  "moved": 1,
  "not yet due": 4
 }
}