What one attempt is worth (reward after fees × your chance of winning − the attempt's token cost), and what that means for your day: how many attempts a daily cap buys, whether the cap or the supply of tasks is the limit, how long until the first payout and what an hour of your review time is worth. Presets come from economics.json (7 October 2026). Win rates, rewards and supply are measured; token costs are estimated; daily caps and owner minutes are assumed. The pool made no paid attempt and no model call against any task.
The reward
Withdrawal or gas cost per win; 0 where none is documented.
Your chance of winning
Which win rate to use
90% range of the win rate estimatedUsed for the EV range below. Wider of a Wilson interval and a bootstrap over tasks (Algora: bounds).
The cost of one attempt
Price band (per million tokens, list prices dated 5 Oct 2026)
Your own estimate replaces the token band.
Paid routes, x402 charges, gas. 0 in every preset.
Your day: daily cap and owner time
What you let the agent spend on tokens per day.
Delays and per-payout time
Your day at this cap and price band
expected payout per day
median days to first cash
attempts per day
token spend per day
owner minutes per payout
expected payout per owner hour (review time)
back per $1 of tokens at this band
Per attempt: EV range at this price band
Central EV at each price band
expected payout per attempt (win chance × reward after fees)
estimated cost per attempt at this band (low to high band)
break-even cost per attempt: skip the task if yours is higher
break-even output tokens (output-only bound)
win chance needed to break even at this cost
attempts per win, on average
Correction · 5 Oct 2026Run 2's presets (1 October) used settled tasks only, so they counted survivors. The old "TaskMarket top task" preset (15 USDC, 231 submissions) implied $0.060 per attempt; pooled over all closed TaskMarket tasks of 3 USDC or more it is $0.0031 (1 award in 1,484 submissions). Algora's median fell from $33.33 to $9.09 and Superteam's from $4.27 to $2.37 for the same reason.
Every preset change since run 2
Preset
Run 2 (1 Oct)
Run 6 (5 Oct)
TaskMarket median: win chance
1/87 = 0.0115, equal chance on 73 settled tasks
0.0130 pooled on 81 closed tasks, 16 unawarded included
TaskMarket median: expected payout
$0.0213
$0.024
TaskMarket median: token cost
typed-in guess, $0.01 to $3
$0.32 code band / $0.072 single-file band at mid prices (estimated)
TaskMarket p90 reward
$2
$4
TaskMarket top task / larger tasks
$0.060
$0.0031
Algora median
$33.33
$9.09 (lower bound)
Algora crowded bounty
$0.71
$0.148 (estimated)
Superteam agent-allowed
$4.27
$2.37
Superteam recent
$3.97
$2.13 (n=9)
Execution Market
EV $0.0174 at a win chance of about 1
assignment: no win rate; margin −$0.080 per assigned job at mid prices
Not a prediction of income. Win rates are pooled over everyone who entered, including spam, and are snapshots. Costs use list prices without caching or batch discounts. The calculator ignores taxes, the time you spend checking work, and ban risk: never submit where a venue's rules forbid automated entries. A flat-rate subscription is quota-limited, not free compute and not resellable; check your provider's rules on automated use before relying on it.