{ "schema_version":"1.0.0","title":"The round closed. Did the money arrive?","topic":"Is AI a Bubble?","question_revision":1,"evidence_checked_on":"2026-09-13","currency":"USD","money_unit":"billions", "scope":"Reader extract:15 central arrangements. This is not a global census or an additive funding total. Source keys below resolve to original documents. The research also examined other arrangements not tabulated in this extract.", "rules":["Null means unknown, not zero. Investor-reported funding is not an independent recipient bank audit.","Do not add round totals and their included components, borrowing, valuations, purchasing promises or guarantee caps.","Percentages, years and critical IT gigawatts are explicitly named; other numeric measures are USD billions.","Historical zero availability is not a current zero. Dates of announcements, payments, financial statements and inspection differ."], "charts":{ "softbank_tranches":{"amounts":[10,10,10],"dates":["2026-04-01","2026-07-01","2026-10-01"],"statuses":["reported executed","reported executed","scheduled; not verified paid"],"arrangement":"softbank-openai-2026"}, "anthropic_facility":{"original_ceiling":20,"series_h_reduction":5,"remaining_ceiling":15,"available_at_inception":0,"current_available":null,"current_drawn":null,"arrangement":"amazon-anthropic-capacity-facility","rule":"Ceiling arithmetic only. First and last bars start at zero; deduction floats from20to15."}, "guarantee_gates":{"reported_initial_cap":105,"initial_it_gw":4.25,"first_phases_expected_year":2028,"expected_loss":null,"arrangement":"nvidia-openai-sb-energy-guarantee","gates":["Delivery and commencement","Qualifying default and notices","Contractual remedies and recovery"],"rule":"Conditions diagram, not proportional cash flow. Redacted project-cost and pre-ready-for-service exceptions prevent an all-in loss estimate."}}, "arrangements":[ {"id":"openai-march-round","from":"Investor group","to":"OpenAI","instrument":"Closed equity round / committed capital","date":"2026-03-31","measures":{"committed":122,"post_money_valuation":852,"aggregate_cash_received":null},"interpretation":"Earlier110bn announcement is not another round to add. Components have separate payment evidence.","sources":["OAI-MAR"]}, {"id":"amazon-openai-investment","from":"Amazon","to":"OpenAI","instrument":"Equity investment","disclosure_date":"2026-07-30","measures":{"reported_invested":50,"q1":15,"q2":13.7,"after_june30_by_filing":21.3},"interpretation":"28.7bn through June30; full50 by filing. Exact later payment date and recipient-side bank receipts unverified.","sources":["AMZN-Q2"]}, {"id":"softbank-openai-2026","from":"SoftBank Vision Fund2","to":"OpenAI","instrument":"Preferred-equity subscription","announcement_date":"2026-02-27","measures":{"commitment":30,"reported_executed":20,"third_scheduled":10},"payment_dates":["2026-04-01","2026-07-01"],"third_scheduled_date":"2026-10-01","interpretation":"Possible listing-related acceleration. Third payment not established by bridge borrowing notice; not a whole-round completion ratio.","sources":["SB-FEB","SB-APR","SB-JUL","SB-JUL-JA","SB-SEP"]}, {"id":"softbank-openai-bridge-2026","from":"Bank lender group","to":"SoftBank Group and funding subsidiary","instrument":"Unsecured bridge facility","disclosure_date":"2026-09-09","measures":{"facility_limit":40,"cumulative_drawings":30,"outstanding_at_notice":25.9,"intended_repayment":25.9,"repayment_executed":null},"planned_repayment_date":"2026-09-15","maturity":"2027-03-25","interpretation":"Borrowing, equity funding and debt repayment are separate legs. Future repayment notice is not execution.","sources":["SB-BRIDGE","SB-SEP"]}, {"id":"amazon-anthropic-series-g-2026","from":"Amazon","to":"Anthropic","instrument":"SeriesG nonvoting preferred stock","period":"Q2 2026","measures":{"reported_invested":5},"interpretation":"Separate from SeriesH5bn; do not deduct it from the20bn facility a second time.","sources":["AMZN-Q2"]}, {"id":"amazon-anthropic-series-h-2026","from":"Amazon","to":"Anthropic","instrument":"SeriesH nonvoting preferred stock","period":"Q2 2026","measures":{"reported_invested":5},"interpretation":"Included in SeriesH round and reduces original20bn facility ceiling. Not three separate additions.","sources":["AMZN-Q2","ANT-H"]}, {"id":"amazon-anthropic-capacity-facility","from":"Amazon","to":"Anthropic","instrument":"Conditional financing for notes or post-liquidity common stock","as_of":"2026-06-30","measures":{"original_ceiling":20,"series_h_reduction":5,"remaining_ceiling":15,"available_at_inception":0,"current_available":null,"current_drawn":null},"interpretation":"Compute-delivery milestones determine availability; borrower chooses drawings. Expires30months after qualifying liquidity event; ownership cap and other terms apply.15bn is not an available-cash balance.","sources":["AMZN-Q2"]}, {"id":"anthropic-series-h","from":"Investor group","to":"Anthropic","instrument":"Equity round","date":"2026-05-28","measures":{"reported_raised":65,"post_money_valuation":965,"prior_hyperscaler_commitments_included":15,"amazon_component_included":5,"aggregate_cash_received":null},"interpretation":"Prior15 is inside65. Do not assign residual included10 to a named investor without evidence.","sources":["ANT-H"]}, {"id":"anthropic-aws-2026","from":"Anthropic","to":"AWS","instrument":"Long-term compute purchasing commitment","date":"2026-04-20","measures":{"amount_lower_bound_exclusive":100,"duration_years":10,"cash_paid":null,"recognized_revenue":null},"interpretation":"Future purchases, not capital raised or current revenue. No invoice-level trace from investment proceeds.","sources":["ANT-AWS","AMZN-Q2"]}, {"id":"microsoft-openai-funding","from":"Microsoft","to":"OpenAI","instrument":"Cumulative equity-method investment funding","as_of":"2026-06-30","measures":{"commitment":13,"reported_funded":11.9,"ownership_percent_approx":25,"historical_stake_value":135,"historical_ownership_percent_approx":27},"historical_valuation_date":"2025-10-28","interpretation":"135bn stake valuation is not another payment. Ownership dates and as-converted/diluted bases differ; no precise dilution calculation.","sources":["MSFT-FY","MSFT-OCT"]}, {"id":"openai-microsoft-commercial","from":"OpenAI","to":"Microsoft","instrument":"Commercial relationship and revenue sharing","period":"Fiscal year ended2026-06-30","measures":{"recognized_revenue":24.1,"receivable_at_june30":6,"cash_collected":null},"interpretation":"24.1 minus6 does not reconstruct collections without opening balances and other movements. April amendment changes cloud/IP/revenue-sharing terms; rate and cap undisclosed. No proof that earlier250bn Azure purchase commitment disappeared.","sources":["MSFT-FY","MSFT-OCT","MSFT-APR"]}, {"id":"nvidia-openai-sb-energy-guarantee","from":"NVIDIA Corporation, contingent guarantor","to":"SB Energy-affiliated landlords; OpenAI-affiliated tenant","instrument":"Residual-value guaranty","disclosure_date":"2026-08-17","later_form_date":"2026-09-04","measures":{"reported_initial_aggregate_cap":105,"initial_critical_it_gw":4.25,"first_phases_expected_year":2028,"cash_paid":null,"expected_loss":null},"interpretation":"Covered-loss provisions depend on commencement, ready-for-service and qualifying default/notice/remedy terms. Redacted pre-RFS/project-cost exceptions prevent an all-in lifetime maximum or blanket no-earlier-cash assertion. Recovery rights are not assured recovery.","sources":["NV-GUAR","SBE-GUAR","SBE-LEASE"]}, {"id":"nvidia-sbe-prepaid-forward","from":"NVIDIA Corporation","to":"Energy Global, LP","instrument":"Prepaid forward","agreement_date":"2026-08-17","filed_on":"2026-09-01","measures":{"contract_amount":1.5,"cash_received":null},"interpretation":"Payment required within3businessdays. Liquidation formula remains junior to creditors and specified securities; not guaranteed recovery. Later index resolves agreement date, not bank receipt.","sources":["SBE-FWD","SBE-INDEX"]}, {"id":"nvidia-sbe-ipo-subscription","from":"NVIDIA Corporation","to":"SE Global Holdings, Inc.","instrument":"IPO-linked ClassN share subscription","agreement_date":"2026-08-17","measures":{"contract_amount":1.5,"minimum_primary_ipo_proceeds":1.5,"cash_received":null},"outside_date":"2027-05-15","interpretation":"Closes after qualifying IPO. Existing-shareholder sales do not meet primary-proceeds threshold. Separate from prepaid forward; no3bn-paid conclusion.","sources":["SBE-SUB","SBE-INDEX"]}, {"id":"ports-pike-lease","from":"OpenAI-affiliated tenant, form partly blank","to":"SB Energy-affiliated landlord, form partly blank","instrument":"Data-center lease form","filed_on":"2026-09-04","measures":{"rent_total":null,"deposit":null,"cash_paid":null},"interpretation":"Each phase rent abated until delivery; deposit due within10businessdays of commencement. Power relief and default conditions differ. Post-commencement force majeure excludes financial inability/market downturn. Selected clauses inspected, not complete74page audit or delivered-capacity proof.","sources":["SBE-LEASE","SBE-GUAR"]} ], "sources":{ "OAI-MAR":"https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/", "AMZN-Q2":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm", "SB-FEB":"https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20260227", "SB-APR":"https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20260401_0", "SB-JUL":"https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20260701", "SB-JUL-JA":"https://group.softbank/news/press/20260701", "SB-SEP":"https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20260909", "SB-BRIDGE":"https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20260327", "ANT-H":"https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h", "ANT-AWS":"https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-amazon-compute", "MSFT-FY":"https://microsoft.gcs-web.com/static-files/8a9beeed-0e9e-48e6-b4fb-593d558e2693", "MSFT-OCT":"https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2025/10/28/the-next-chapter-of-the-microsoft-openai-partnership/", "MSFT-APR":"https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/04/27/the-next-phase-of-the-microsoft-openai-partnership/", "NV-GUAR":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000069/nvda-20260817.htm", "SBE-GUAR":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2133037/000162828026060761/sbenergy-ex1031xformofport.htm", "SBE-LEASE":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2133037/000162828026060761/sbenergy-ex1030xformofport.htm", "SBE-FWD":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2133037/000162828026059639/exhibit1027-prepaidforward.htm", "SBE-SUB":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2133037/000162828026059639/exhibit1028-sharepurchasea.htm", "SBE-INDEX":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2133037/000162828026060761/sbenergy-sx1a1exhibitsonly.htm"}, "limitations":["Selected issuer disclosures and contract forms, not an audit of private books or an investment recommendation.","Main SB Energy S-1 exceeded retrieval limit; related exhibits were accessible. Full cash chronology remains unresolved.","Contractual rights and caps do not establish loss probability, customer profitability or independently retained end-customer demand."] }