{ "schema_version": "1.0.0", "id": "dataset:spending-to-capacity", "topic": "Is AI a Bubble?", "question_revision": 1, "question": "Is AI a Bubble?", "run_id": "20260911-073452-a26c6409", "checked_on": "2026-09-11", "period_policy": "Common calendar January–June 2026 for cash comparison; dated balance, annual and guidance records are separate.", "aggregation_policy": "No total named AI spending or AI demand is calculated. All-company samples are not industry consolidation.", "companies": [ { "id": "cash-bridge:microsoft:2026-h1", "company": "Microsoft", "period_start": "2026-01-01", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "currency": "USD", "unit": "million", "scope": "whole company, not AI-only", "cash_from_operations": 102120, "gross_cash_ppe": 66678, "gross_cash_ppe_previous_h1": 33824, "cash_after_gross_ppe": 35442, "finance_lease_principal_paid": null, "noncash_finance_lease_additions": null, "source_ids": [ "source:msft-fy26-10k", "source:msft-fy26q2" ], "source_locators": [ "Printed pp. 44, 53, 78; PDF indices 43, 52, 77", "Cash Flows; six-month columns, net cash from operations and additions to PP&E" ], "notes": [ "Calendar H1 is full fiscal year ended June 30 minus six months ended December 31. Not a direct six-month disclosure.", "H1 finance-lease principal and exact noncash additions not recovered; annual lease figures are supplied separately, not inserted into this half-year column.", "Cash after gross PP&E is a limited comparison, not company-defined free cash flow or AI project return." ], "ppe_yoy_percent": "97.13", "ppe_to_ocf_percent": "65.29" }, { "id": "cash-bridge:alphabet:2026-h1", "company": "Alphabet", "period_start": "2026-01-01", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "currency": "USD", "unit": "million", "scope": "whole company, not AI-only", "cash_from_operations": 84859, "gross_cash_ppe": 80598, "gross_cash_ppe_previous_h1": 39643, "cash_after_gross_ppe": 4261, "finance_lease_principal_paid": 840, "noncash_finance_lease_additions": 902, "source_ids": [ "source:alphabet-q226-10q" ], "source_locators": [ "Cash flows; Note 3 PP&E; Note 5 leases; TPU systems discussion. PDF mirror printed pp. 10, 25 visually checked." ], "notes": [ "Lease principal excludes $835 million of prepayments on uncommenced leases disclosed separately.", "Prepayments are not silently added to gross PP&E or principal; a complete cash-use classification remains unresolved.", "Assets not yet in service are a stock, not additional period spending." ], "ppe_yoy_percent": "103.31", "ppe_to_ocf_percent": "94.98" }, { "id": "cash-bridge:amazon:2026-h1", "company": "Amazon", "period_start": "2026-01-01", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "currency": "USD", "unit": "million", "scope": "whole company, not AI-only", "cash_from_operations": 71419, "gross_cash_ppe": 98411, "gross_cash_ppe_previous_h1": 57202, "cash_after_gross_ppe": -26992, "finance_lease_principal_paid": 863, "noncash_finance_lease_additions": 2128, "source_ids": [ "source:amazon-q226-release", "source:amazon-q226-10q" ], "source_locators": [ "Consolidated cash flows, supplemental free cash flow table, segment information", "Notes 1 supplemental cash flows, 2 investments, 4 commitments, 8 segments" ], "notes": [ "Gross PP&E differs from company free-cash-flow definition, which nets proceeds from property sales and incentives.", "Noncash finance-lease PP&E is net of remeasurements and modifications.", "Retail, logistics and cloud are included; $174 million of financing-obligation principal is distinct from finance-lease principal." ], "ppe_yoy_percent": "72.04", "ppe_to_ocf_percent": "137.79", "asset_sale_and_incentive_proceeds": 2101, "net_cash_ppe": 96310, "cash_after_net_ppe": -24891, "financing_obligation_principal_paid": 174 }, { "id": "cash-bridge:meta:2026-h1", "company": "Meta", "period_start": "2026-01-01", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "currency": "USD", "unit": "million", "scope": "whole company, not AI-only", "cash_from_operations": 64088, "gross_cash_ppe": 49113, "gross_cash_ppe_previous_h1": 29479, "cash_after_gross_ppe": 14975, "finance_lease_principal_paid": 1805, "noncash_finance_lease_additions": null, "source_ids": [ "source:meta-q226-release", "source:meta-q226-10q" ], "source_locators": [ "Cash-flow statement and FCF/capital-expenditure reconciliation; CFO outlook", "Notes 7 PP&E and 9 commitments; supplemental cash-flow disclosures" ], "notes": [ "Company-defined capex includes finance-lease principal; company FCF subtracts both gross PP&E and lease principal.", "Interim note discloses finance-lease asset balances, not a separately recovered noncash-addition flow. Unknown is not zero.", "Ads, other services and Reality Labs included; no independent AI-only revenue/cash-return account." ], "ppe_yoy_percent": "66.60", "ppe_to_ocf_percent": "76.63", "company_defined_capex": 50918, "company_defined_fcf": 13170 } ], "annual_lease_context": [ { "company": "Microsoft", "period_start": "2025-07-01", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "unit": "USD million", "finance_lease_principal_paid": 3101, "noncash_finance_lease_additions": 24608, "finance_lease_interest_operating_cash": 2547, "operating_lease_cash": 6443, "source_ids": [ "source:msft-fy26-10k" ], "not_comparable_to_h1": true } ], "commitments": [ { "company": "Microsoft", "as_of": "2026-06-30", "uncommenced_leases_usd_million": 329100, "commencement": "Fiscal 2027–2033", "terms": "1–20 years", "conditions": "Some contracts subject to conditions; primarily data centers", "other_obligations": [ { "measure": "Construction commitments", "amount_usd_million": 34566, "basis": "Contractual cash requirements; not current-period cash PP&E" }, { "measure": "Purchase commitments", "amount_usd_million": 194060, "basis": "Includes open purchase orders / take-or-pay, primarily data centers; excludes construction category above" } ], "no_add_rule": "The $443,506m aggregate operating/finance lease table already includes uncommenced leases. Do not add $329,100m to it. Do not add leases to current cash spending.", "source_ids": [ "source:msft-fy26-10k" ] }, { "company": "Alphabet", "as_of": "2026-06-30", "uncommenced_leases_usd_million": 85200, "commencement": "2026–2031", "terms": "1–26 years", "conditions": "Lease obligations for future periods; not reported cash this half", "other_obligations": [ { "measure": "Separately described short-term lease payments", "amount_usd_million": 5800, "basis": "Expected to commence Q3; not blindly aggregated with long-term measure" }, { "measure": "Prepayments for uncommenced leases in H1", "amount_usd_million": 835, "basis": "Cash flow, not additional liability stock" } ], "no_add_rule": "Distinguish stock of future payments, current principal, prepaid cash and noncash additions.", "source_ids": [ "source:alphabet-q226-10q" ] }, { "company": "Amazon", "as_of": "2026-06-30", "uncommenced_leases_usd_million": 137214, "commencement": null, "terms": null, "conditions": "Company-wide facilities/equipment; not all AI/data centers", "other_obligations": [ { "measure": "Unconditional purchase obligations", "amount_usd_million": 130065, "basis": "Includes energy, content, PP&E and software; contract minimums, excludes normal cancellable orders" } ], "no_add_rule": "Future commitments are not June cash paid, AI-only capacity or recognized revenue.", "source_ids": [ "source:amazon-q226-10q" ] }, { "company": "Meta", "as_of": "2026-06-30", "uncommenced_leases_usd_million": 278990, "commencement": "Remainder of 2026–2036", "terms": "More than 1 to 30 years", "conditions": "Primarily data centers, colocation and network infrastructure", "other_obligations": [ { "measure": "Other non-cancellable commitments", "amount_usd_million": 349310, "basis": "Third-party cloud, PP&E, Reality Labs hardware; not all AI capex" }, { "measure": "Additional lease commitments entered in July", "amount_usd_million": 68000, "basis": "Subsequent event, starts 2027/2028; 18–20-year terms, NOT a June 30 balance" }, { "measure": "Contingent cloud purchase exposure up to", "amount_usd_million": 14720, "basis": "Five years; reduced by purchases from other customers. Not unconditional" } ], "no_add_rule": "No sum of June balances, July events and contingent maxima; categories, timing and possible overlaps differ.", "source_ids": [ "source:meta-q226-10q" ] } ], "capacity": [ { "id": "capacity:msft-q4", "company": "Microsoft", "stage": "issuer_reported_capacity_added", "period": "Quarter ended 2026-06-30", "observation": "Management reports 1 GW of capacity and 31 data centers added in the quarter.", "quantity": 1, "unit": "GW", "issuer_attribution": true, "ai_only": false, "paid_utilization": null, "limitations": "No facility-level tie-out, common capacity definition, cash cohort or retained-customer use supplied.", "source_ids": [ "source:msft-fy26q4-call" ] }, { "id": "capacity:alphabet-cip", "company": "Alphabet", "stage": "assets_not_yet_in_service", "as_of": "2026-06-30", "amount_usd_million": 122814, "comparison_as_of": "2025-12-31", "comparison_amount_usd_million": 78592, "observation": "Primarily technical infrastructure still being prepared for intended use.", "limitations": "Book stock, not current cash additions, installed power, empty completed facilities or paid utilization.", "source_ids": [ "source:alphabet-q226-10q" ] }, { "id": "capacity:meta-cip", "company": "Meta", "stage": "construction_in_progress", "as_of": "2026-06-30", "amount_usd_million": 80345, "comparison_as_of": "2025-12-31", "comparison_amount_usd_million": 50521, "limitations": "Book stock, not another amount to add to current cash flow; not evidence of idle finished GPUs.", "source_ids": [ "source:meta-q226-10q" ] }, { "id": "capacity:amazon-unmapped", "company": "Amazon", "stage": "asset_cash_and_balance_disclosed_capacity_not_mapped", "as_of": "2026-06-30", "observation": "Cash and lease purchases are disclosed; no matched expenditure-cohort to energized capacity and paid use reconstructed.", "paid_utilization": null, "source_ids": [ "source:amazon-q226-10q", "source:amazon-q226-release" ] }, { "id": "capacity:pjm-load", "company": null, "stage": "independent_operator_observed_load", "event_date": "2026-07-22", "quantity_approx": 3800, "unit": "MW", "observation": "Data-center demand shifted off the grid onto backup generation after a fault.", "ai_only": false, "issuer_attribution": false, "paid_utilization": null, "limitations": "Preliminary event; actual electrical use is not proof of AI economic utilization or the sampled companies’ returns. No significant system reliability impact reported.", "source_ids": [ "source:pjm-load-july2026", "source:pjm-ride-through-sept2026" ] } ], "guidance": [ { "company": "Microsoft", "target_period": "calendar 2026", "as_of": "2026-07-29", "previous_usd_billion": 190, "current_usd_billion": 175, "stage": "management_outlook", "definition": "Reported capex includes finance leases; classification changes prospectively in FY2027", "explanation": "Management links reduction to extending buildings/data-center estimated life from 15 to 25 years and more leases qualifying as operating; underlying investment plan unchanged excluding this effect.", "not_claimed": "Not a GPU life extension, measured $15bn cash saving, fraud finding or physical buildout cut.", "source_ids": [ "source:msft-fy26q4-call" ] }, { "company": "Alphabet", "target_period": "calendar 2026", "as_of": "2026-07-22", "previous_range_usd_billion": [ 180, 190 ], "current_range_usd_billion": [ 195, 205 ], "stage": "management_outlook", "definition": "CapEx outlook; do not blend with other issuers’ lease-inclusive measures", "explanation": "Capacity delivery acceleration is management’s explanation, not independent site verification.", "source_ids": [ "source:alphabet-q226-call" ] }, { "company": "Meta", "target_period": "calendar 2026", "as_of": "2026-07-29", "previous_range_usd_billion": [ 125, 145 ], "current_range_usd_billion": [ 130, 145 ], "stage": "management_outlook", "definition": "Capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases", "source_ids": [ "source:meta-q226-release" ] }, { "company": "Amazon", "target_period": "calendar 2026", "as_of": "2026-09-11", "current_range_usd_billion": null, "stage": "not_admitted", "definition": null, "explanation": "A newer numerical outlook surfaced in secondary results; no original supporting call text recovered. Use verified historical cash data rather than present secondary guidance as checked primary fact.", "source_ids": [ "source:amazon-q226-release" ] } ], "sources": [ { "id": "source:msft-fy26-10k", "title": "Microsoft FY2026 Form 10-K, official issuer mirror", "url": "https://microsoft.gcs-web.com/static-files/8a9beeed-0e9e-48e6-b4fb-593d558e2693", "published_at": "2026-07-29", "publication_date_precision": "day", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "issuer_filing", "inspection_scope": "Cash flows, lease note and contractual obligations; table screenshots inspected", "locator": "Printed pp. 44, 53, 78; PDF indices 43, 52, 77", "limitations": "Issuer disclosure, not independent verification of economics or AI-only attribution." }, { "id": "source:msft-fy26q2", "title": "Microsoft FY2026 Q2 earnings release", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q2/press-release-webcast", "published_at": "2026-01-28", "publication_date_precision": "day", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "issuer_release", "inspection_scope": "Six months ended December 2025 and comparative cash-flow columns", "locator": "Cash Flows; six-month columns, net cash from operations and additions to PP&E", "limitations": "Issuer disclosure, not independent verification of economics or AI-only attribution." }, { "id": "source:msft-fy26q4-call", "title": "Microsoft FY2026 Q4 earnings call", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q4", "published_at": "2026-07-29", "publication_date_precision": "day", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "issuer_management_statement", "inspection_scope": "Capex, finance leases, building life, calendar outlook and delivered-capacity assertions", "locator": "CFO prepared remarks on capex/lives/outlook; CEO capacity remarks", "limitations": "Issuer disclosure, not independent verification of economics or AI-only attribution." }, { "id": "source:msft-fy26q3-call", "title": "Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings call", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q3", "published_at": null, "publication_date_precision": "unknown", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "issuer_management_statement", "inspection_scope": "Cash versus goods-receipt timing; rounded capex and finance leases", "locator": "CFO capital expenditure and cash-flow discussion for quarter ended March 31, 2026", "limitations": "Issuer disclosure, not independent verification of economics or AI-only attribution." }, { "id": "source:alphabet-q226-10q", "title": "Alphabet Q2 2026 Form 10-Q", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000071/goog-20260630.htm", "published_at": null, "publication_date_precision": "unknown", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "issuer_filing", "inspection_scope": "Cash flow, PP&E, lease table, commitments and TPU revenue treatment", "locator": "Cash flows; Note 3 PP&E; Note 5 leases; TPU systems discussion. PDF mirror printed pp. 10, 25 visually checked.", "limitations": "Issuer disclosure, not independent verification of economics or AI-only attribution." }, { "id": "source:alphabet-q226-call", "title": "Alphabet Q2 2026 earnings call", "url": "https://abc.xyz/investor/events/event-details/2026/2026-Q2-Earnings-Call-2026-GgTAq7Is0z/default.aspx", "published_at": "2026-07-22", "publication_date_precision": "day", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "issuer_management_statement", "inspection_scope": "Current capex outlook and third-party capacity/TPU mix", "locator": "CFO 2026 CapEx guidance and capacity commentary", "limitations": "Issuer disclosure, not independent verification of economics or AI-only attribution." }, { "id": "source:amazon-q226-release", "title": "Amazon Q2 2026 earnings release", "url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/", "published_at": "2026-07-30", "publication_date_precision": "day", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "issuer_release", "inspection_scope": "Cash flow by quarter, six months and trailing year; company FCF definition; AWS results", "locator": "Consolidated cash flows, supplemental free cash flow table, segment information", "limitations": "Issuer disclosure, not independent verification of economics or AI-only attribution." }, { "id": "source:amazon-q226-10q", "title": "Amazon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm", "published_at": "2026-07-30", "publication_date_precision": "day", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "issuer_filing", "inspection_scope": "Lease cash/noncash additions, uncommenced and purchase obligations, OpenAI investments/subsequent payment, Anthropic facility", "locator": "Notes 1 supplemental cash flows, 2 investments, 4 commitments, 8 segments", "limitations": "Issuer disclosure, not independent verification of economics or AI-only attribution." }, { "id": "source:meta-q226-release", "title": "Meta Q2 2026 earnings release", "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx", "published_at": "2026-07-29", "publication_date_precision": "day", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "issuer_release", "inspection_scope": "Six-month cash flows and FCF reconciliation; revised full-year guidance", "locator": "Cash-flow statement and FCF/capital-expenditure reconciliation; CFO outlook", "limitations": "Issuer disclosure, not independent verification of economics or AI-only attribution." }, { "id": "source:meta-q226-10q", "title": "Meta Q2 2026 Form 10-Q", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026050705/meta-20260630.htm", "published_at": null, "publication_date_precision": "unknown", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "issuer_filing", "inspection_scope": "PP&E construction balances, unpaid PP&E, uncommenced leases and subsequent commitments", "locator": "Notes 7 PP&E and 9 commitments; supplemental cash-flow disclosures", "limitations": "Issuer disclosure, not independent verification of economics or AI-only attribution." }, { "id": "source:pjm-load-july2026", "title": "PJM and Dominion review July 22 large-load transfer", "url": "https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-dominion-review-large-load-transfer-event/", "published_at": "2026-08-11", "publication_date_precision": "day", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "grid_operator_observation", "inspection_scope": "Actual approximately 3,800 MW data-center transfer to backup generation, consequences and investigation", "locator": "July 22 event description and preliminary review", "limitations": "Independent of the sampled issuers but operator-authored preliminary account; not AI-only, issuer-attributed, paid utilization or a national estimate." }, { "id": "source:pjm-ride-through-sept2026", "title": "PJM proposes large-load ride-through standards", "url": "https://insidelines.pjm.com/reliability-standards-to-manage-large-load-disconnection-events-proposed-by-pjm/", "published_at": "2026-09-10", "publication_date_precision": "day", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "grid_operator_proposal", "inspection_scope": "Follow-up proposal after load-disconnection events", "locator": "September 8 presentation; proposed standards and planned filing", "limitations": "Proposal, not an enacted rule or evidence of completed connections." }, { "id": "source:pjm-connection-aug2026", "title": "PJM proposes new large-load connection framework", "url": "https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-proposes-framework-to-connect-data-centers-without-compromising-reliability-affordability/", "published_at": "2026-08-13", "publication_date_precision": "day", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "grid_operator_proposal", "inspection_scope": "Connection constraints, curtailment framework and demand forecast", "locator": "IRAS proposal; 2024–2030 forecast discussion", "limitations": "Proposal and forecast, not actual delivered AI capacity; no sector-wide extrapolation." }, { "id": "source:texas-data-audit", "title": "Texas governor directs interconnection data-center audit", "url": "https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-directs-comprehensive-data-center-audit", "published_at": "2026-08-03", "publication_date_precision": "day", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "government_directive", "inspection_scope": "Audit before data-center projects advance through ERCOT interconnection process", "locator": "Press release dated August 3, main directive paragraphs", "limitations": "Government statement of directive, not a finding that every requested project is duplicative or uneconomic; no comprehensive implementation audit." }, { "id": "source:eia-steo-sept2026", "title": "EIA September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/", "published_at": "2026-09-09", "publication_date_precision": "day", "accessed_on": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "government_forecast", "inspection_scope": "Electricity-sales forecast and West South Central revision; input cutoff September 3", "locator": "Electricity discussion: 2027 regional sales 790 versus prior 829 billion kWh", "limitations": "Forecast, not measured load; dynamic landing page may change. Region is not all US/AI. Revision is not entirely attributed to one causal component." } ], "definitions": { "gross_cash_ppe": "Cash purchases/additions to property and equipment in investing cash flow, shown positive for outflow. Does not count the initial noncash recognition of finance-leased assets.", "cash_after_gross_ppe": "Cash from operations minus gross cash PP&E. A limited common subtraction, not a complete funding waterfall, AI profitability or universal FCF definition. Operating lease cash is already in OCF; do not subtract it twice.", "finance_lease_principal_paid": "Current financing cash outflow paying a lease liability, not the value of new assets recognized. Lease interest is already in operating cash.", "noncash_finance_lease_additions": "Assets recognized against future obligations, not all cash paid now; definitions and remeasurement treatment may vary.", "uncommenced_leases": "Disclosed future lease commitments before commencement; not current cash, energized capacity or additive to lease totals already containing them.", "unknown": "Null means unavailable or not recovered, never zero." } }