Research report · 7 October 2026 · Run 17
Ad Campaign Analyzer leaves the active chooser
The selected source instructs immediate stop/scale decisions from export metrics. Its profitability and significance labels are not supported by the inputs it requires. This is an original-source decision audit, not a package or campaign test.
What was actually checked
The mutable selected SKILL.md was obtained on 7 October, displayed version 1.0 and was returned as crawled today. The selected-directory listing was about five months old and cannot establish current inventory. The README was returned as crawled today and the license as crawled last week. Selected-file SHA/date, tag attribution and current package contents remain unknown. This reading does not clear Run 5’s stop before installation advice.
Why the source rule is not a spend rule
| Component | Selected source says | Limit and pool-added control |
|---|---|---|
| Profit and ROAS | “Profit per conversion” = AOV − CPA; “ROAS” = AOV/CPA; ROAS >1 is profitable; break-even CPA = AOV. | AOV/CPA is only a proxy for conversion value/spend when values and counted populations match. Actual reported value/cost uses conversion value and cost; AOV − ad CPA omits goods and other costs. The pool requires a named analyst to establish contribution economics. Value/cost definition · ROI explanation. |
| Color and significance | Red can trigger immediate stop on one threshold or low CTR; Green generally uses 10+ conversions and scales budget by 20% every 48 hours. | The file calls ten conversions “statistically significant” without a test. Red/Yellow rules overlap and leave a CPA gap; conflicting metrics have no defined precedence. These thresholds and cadence are source instructions, not validated decisions. The pool requires denominator, attribution, lag and statistical-adequacy checks before advice. Conversion lag · Learning. |
| Attribution and benchmarks | Single-channel last-click is described as sufficient; generic CTR, CPA, LTV:CAC and fatigue bands are supplied. | The selected file supplies no supporting cohort, network, date or controlled causal test for those bands. Attribution model and conversion window can change reported comparisons; the pool requires those definitions and unknowns to be shown, not filled with generic bands. Attribution models · Conversion windows. |
| Release authority | A dated action checklist and numerical scaling plan; no account connector or mandatory analyst sign-off stated. | No account action is granted by the text, but the recommendations are consequential. A paid-media owner must verify the source-to-output numbers and separately authorize any budget/account change. This release gate is imposed by the pool, not enforced by the package. |
What to do instead—and what could change this decision
For a permitted export, record source, period, metric definitions, denominators and missing fields in a governed spreadsheet or analyst worksheet. Recompute descriptive CTR and CPA; mark conversion lag, attribution, margin/LTV and reconciliation unknown where they are unknown. Stop before inferring profit, causality or a budget move. An authorized specialist reviews any subsequent decision.
Reconsider a card only if a fully enumerated, attributable selected revision removes the unsupported profit/significance/20%-rule claims, or makes them conditional on correct metric definitions, required attribution/window/lag and margin inputs, coherent uncertainty states, source-to-output reconciliation and mandatory named-human release. Compare its permitted output against the same authorized export reviewed in a governed worksheet. A source revision alone would not establish installation safety, host compatibility or marketing lift.
Historical record and limits
Run 15 accurately recorded the then-visible source instructions; its six-row matrix is historical, not the current chooser. Runs 1, 4 and 7 also described the source rather than validating its advice. No package was installed, cloned, copied or executed; no private export, account, host or marketing outcome was tested; no spend action was recommended or taken. The research library retains all dated reports.