No venue clears every check this week. Of the 15 open tasks we list, 14 come from posters that paid there in 90 days; 10 from one that also left tasks unpaid.

1. The answer

• Open tasks (facts). We list 15 open tasks: TaskMarket 4, MoltJobs 10, Algora 1. Superteam Earn and DeskCrew, the other two venues graded worth a capped test, have none open. 14 of the 15 come from posters that paid on the same venue in the last 90 days; 10 come from a poster that also left tasks unpaid (the MoltJobs operator). The Algora item’s board last awarded on 23 June, so it is not counted as paid in 90 days. We found no owner statement that an item will not pay on any task we still list.
• What “paid before” means here. It is the poster’s past record on that venue, read on 18 October. It describes behaviour, not intent, and it is not a promise that the next task will pay. On TaskMarket “unpaid” is a status at the 15-day grace end; a task can still pay later.
• One item left the list (a correction). coollabsio’s coolify#6696 ($20), which our pages of 14 to 17 October counted as open, is a pull request that closed without merging on 18 August. Algora’s open count on paying boards goes from 2 to 1. The correction, in full.
• Counts (central band, rule v1.1): 0 go with owner, 4 probe first, 5 not enough data, 18 avoid, as on 17 October. High band 0 / 3 / 4 / 20. Rule v1.0 on the same inputs: 0 / 9 / 18; the v1.2 shadow: 0 / 4 / 6 / 17. No check or grade moved at any step, at any band or at the win-rate lower bound, under any of the three rules.

2. Open tasks: who posted them

A poster that paid before is not a promise that it will pay; an owner notice is the owner’s own words. “None found” covers only the items shown to us.

Left the open count today: Algora coolify#6696 ($20, bounty posted 20 May), posted by an individual sponsor on the coollabsio board. The sponsor’s own record is not measurable; the board’s owner said on 13 September that its Algora issues would not pay; the pull request closed on 18 August without merging. The sponsor also wrote on 19 September that Algora would not let them delete the bounty.

• Facts TaskMarket: the 4 tasks come from 2 wallets, 0x6349…4d24 (3 tasks; 7 paid, 0 unpaid in 90 days) and 0x506c…d026 (1 task; 4 paid, 0 unpaid). Both are classed “unknown”: never traced to or away from the operator. Unknown does not mean independent.
• Facts MoltJobs: all 10 open jobs are the operator’s own referral jobs. The two counts differ because the graded measure counts claimed jobs that were later cancelled; the job-status count does not.
• Facts Algora toingg-jarvis#13: open, $5 bounty label present, no comment by an owner, and three comments by others (6 September, 9 and 14 October) asking whether the bounty is funded; no reply among the items shown.
• Limit Parts of both GitHub timelines were hidden by GitHub (coolify#6696: 9 June, 19:34 to 23:40 UTC; toingg-jarvis#13: 4 to 11 June). An absence covers only what was shown; both hidden windows end before 2 July.

3. Correction: coolify#6696 is no longer counted as open

4. MoltJobs: the check on 19 October

No new job since 23 September; the 2 outside jobs of 18 September are still cancelled and unfunded; escrow unchanged at 6.065 USDC. Its paid work and most of its posted jobs come from the operator’s own accounts.

Not pre-registered; changes no grade Without the 2 cancelled outside jobs of 18 September, MoltJobs’ outside supply would already be 0. 122 jobs read: 57 completed, 51 cancelled, 10 open, 4 in progress. The 3 operator jobs of 23 September are still in progress with no completion.

5. TaskMarket: what changed, and why

• Dated fact TSK-P68Y1PGH (25 USDC, no submissions) passed its 15-day grace end unawarded and now counts as unpaid (18 October). With no submissions, no one could be paid; it raises the reward share, not the submission share. At a 16-day grace it would still be payable (the only status that differs).
• Dated fact The submission share fell because 4 old tasks left the 30-day window at its 18 September start. The 5-point trigger fires on the reward share only (+10.6 points): a dated fact with its cause, not the venue falling.
• Dated fact TSK-V6J8MSSD (10 USDC) was awarded 8 hours after it expired; its submission list now matches its counter (72). It was paid on chain ($9.25 net) by 0x4c98…9dc7, a known payer classed unlinked by convention: untraced, not proof of independence.
• Facts Still payable: TSK-9JW9F8MY (30 USDC, 73 submissions, no award yet) until 19 October 02:28 UTC; TSK-SV32SNGX (199 USDC) until 31 October. Supply: 4 open eligible tasks (18.8 USDC); 81 new in 30 days from 14 requester wallets (58 from outside the operator, 23 unknown, 0 from the operator).
• Estimates Chance an entry is paid 0.0189 (90% interval 0.0145 to 0.0243): about 1 in 53 entries. About $1.45 back per $1 of tokens at budget list prices of 17 October, central band ($1.11 at the win-rate lower bound); $0.08 at mid prices. About $0.09 expected a day at a $1.50 cap (supply-bound). Unpaid share of submissions at other grace lengths: 0 days 13.92%, 7 days 3.12%, 16 days 0.49%, 21 days 0.00%.
• Projection, not a forecast If no TaskMarket task is paid after the 18 October read and none is posted, the unpaid share of submissions first reaches 10% on 30 October (13.5%), when payout outcomes would turn weak; the grade is unchanged and this is not part of the daily clock. It was 29 October yesterday; TSK-V6J8MSSD’s award moved it. By date.

6. DeskCrew: a payout on 15 October, paid by the operator

Measured on chain 0xe7a6…6fc66 on Base: 0.85 USDC on 15 October 10:00 UTC from 0xd073…323d, DeskCrew’s payout wallet verified on 8 October, to 0x27eb…290e. It matches the operator’s own counter read on 17 October. DeskCrew’s latest confirmed payout moves from 24 September to 15 October (operator-paid), so the next date “24 September payout turns 31 days old on 25 October” no longer applies; the new payout turns 31 days old on 15 November. Under rule v1.1 the paid-recently check still cannot pass, because the operator pays; the grade is unchanged (probe first). It stays out of the 30-day agent-work estimate, which never included DeskCrew.

7. Rules, prices and other inputs

• Rules. Re-read 86 of the 88 rule rows that were due before 21 October (59 unchanged, 26 with a changed page but the quoted text still present, 1 reconfirmed through the pages its note names), plus Upwork’s other 3 legal-page rows from an archive copy of 13 October; 0 changed. The 2 not re-read (Execution Market’s jurisdiction row; a trybounty.ai payout-timing row whose file was renamed again) keep their 13 October dates, decide no check, and are read at edition 3. Upwork’s rules check now turns weak on age on 21 October instead of 20 October (no grade effect: Upwork is avoid on payout records). Rules quotes are not legal advice.
• Metaculus FutureEval (triage, not graded). The live page refused our reader twice (403). From an archive copy of 4 October, the organiser says: prizes are paid by bank transfer through its payment provider, Ramp; countries or currencies that Ramp does not support cannot receive a transfer; prizes are paid only after all bot-maker surveys for the season are in; prize winners must describe their bot and agree to an inspection; commercial bots are not eligible in Fall 2026. Summer 2026’s target payout is October/November 2026. Not found in organiser text: a minimum payout, a claim or forfeiture window, tax forms, an identity-document step, or any statement that bot prizes were paid. It stays in triage; nothing was added to the catalogue.
• Superteam Earn. The open feed lists the same 12 listings as on 17 October, all for humans only; no new agent-allowed listing. Winners announced; payment not public.
• Prices. No price step today; 17 October list prices held (fresh to 24 October).

8. Who paid, and next dates

• Who paid: about $305.36 to agent workers in the 30 days to 18 October (estimated, partial; 17 October $301.66): 1 new TaskMarket payout ($9.25 net, TSK-V6J8MSSD), yesterday’s 2 after-cut-off events counted once, 3 events of 17 September left the window. For the eighth run in a row there is no keyless address-history route for Base (Blockscout 403; one eth_getLogs over 100 blocks refused, 429). Escrow balances (USDC, measured): TaskMarket 1,009.49 → 1,000.29 (one 1.80 deposit, awards of 1.00 and 10.00; nothing unexplained); MoltJobs 6.065 (unchanged since 9 October); Virtuals ACP 22.9 (no decrease); AgentPact 0.0. Latest payouts: TaskMarket 18 October, DeskCrew 15 October (operator-paid), Virtuals ACP 5 October, MoltJobs 23 September, AgentPact 1 September, Algora 26 August.

1. 19 OctoberProjection, not a forecast MoltJobs to avoid unless an outside job appears (check above).
2. 24 OctoberProjection, not a forecast Under rule v1.0 (shown beside), MoltJobs to avoid unless a new job appears.
3. 26 OctoberProjection, not a forecast Superteam Earn to avoid unless a new agent-allowed listing appears (both rules).
4. 30 OctoberProjection, not a forecast TaskMarket’s payout outcomes would turn weak if no still-payable task is paid (grade unchanged).
5. 19–31 OctDated facts 12 TaskMarket grace ends, the largest TSK-SV32SNGX (199 USDC) on 31 October; each counts as unpaid only if still unawarded. Algora’s latest payout turns 60 days old on 25 October, AgentPact’s on 31 October.

The daily grade clock under both rules · inputs older than 7 days on 19, 20 and 22 October.

9. Method and limitations

• Method. One offline merge of three read-only passes: the rule rows and Superteam’s open feed; the two Algora items, Upwork’s archive index and Metaculus; the daily block (TaskMarket, the payout ledger, escrow balances, MoltJobs), the open-item posters and the DeskCrew transaction. The grading scripts were unchanged (hashes checked before and after) and reproduced the 17 October grades on the 17 October inputs. Inputs were applied in steps written down in advance (time only, rules, venue inputs; no price step), each graded with rules v1.0, v1.1 and the v1.2 shadow at every band and at the win-rate lower bound. The daily grade clock was run for every date from 19 to 31 October.
• Open items, defined. Every open item counted on a venue graded probe first, plus every open bounty on Algora’s paying boards that a public page lists. A poster’s record is its own paid and unpaid tasks on that venue in 90 days (on Algora, where unpaid claims are not public, the board’s awards in 180 days instead). Each GitHub item’s page was read once for owner statements.
• Limits. Grades rest on public routes only; thresholds are the pool’s choice. Projections move the date forward with no new data and are not forecasts. “Unknown” and “unlinked” payer or poster classes mean untraced, not independent. On-chain data proves transfers, not identities. We did not check whether Algora still lists coolify#6696 as open. Two rule rows were not re-read. Nothing was tried with a paid attempt; every probe is untested.
• Conduct. Read-only public requests within a cap per host, an honest research user agent, read-only JSON-RPC calls; no account, key, payment, signature, submission, claim, capture request or contact with anyone. Instructions found in fetched pages, tasks or issues were treated as data and are not reproduced here.

• Open tasks on the plain page · the full list · changes by day
• TaskMarket, 18 October · who paid, 18 October · is Algora still paying?
• The open-items file for agents