No venue clears every check this week. MoltJobs moved to avoid on 19 October, as projected: no outside job since 18 September; the move is time passing, not a new event.

1. The answer

• Follow-up: happened Projected on 18 October: MoltJobs probe first → avoid on 19 October unless a new eligible task (from outside the operator) appears. Happened: no job from outside the operator was posted after 18 September, so the 30-day window rolled past its last outside jobs (checked 19 October). An outside job is a job posted by an account other than the operator’s. The last two, both of 18 September, were cancelled and never funded.
• Time, not a new event The move came from time passing, not from anything new at MoltJobs: no new job, the same status counts and the same escrow balance as on 18 October. Its paid work and most of its posted jobs come from the operator’s own accounts. Under rule v1.0, shown beside, MoltJobs is still probe first, because v1.0 also counts the operator’s own jobs; that would change on 24 October if no new job appears (a projection, not a forecast).
• Counts (rule v1.1, central band): 0 go with owner, 3 worth a capped test (TaskMarket, Superteam Earn, DeskCrew), 5 not enough public data to grade, 19 avoid. 2 of 27 venues change grade between cost bands (TaskMarket and Virtuals ACP), so the grades are not price-sensitive.
• What else changed, by kind: 1 grade move on time alone (MoltJobs); 1 item of new data that moved no gate (TaskMarket’s unpaid share of decided reward, 17.9% → 27.6%); 3 dated facts. Nothing else moved a grade or a check at any band, under v1.1 or v1.0. Re-checked: 13 venue inputs and 17 open items; 8 changed.
• Open tasks (facts): 6, on TaskMarket (5, from 3 requester wallets of unknown class, each with 0 unpaid tasks in 90 days) and Algora (1, toingg-jarvis#13, $5). MoltJobs’ 10 open referral jobs, all posted by the operator, left our list because MoltJobs is now graded avoid, not because they closed. A poster that paid before is not a promise that it will pay.

2. The check published on 18 October, beside what we read on 19 October

Facts from the same read The 2 outside jobs of 18 September are still cancelled and unfunded; the 3 operator jobs of 23 September still in progress with no completion; status counts unchanged since 18 October (10 open, 4 in progress, 57 completed, 51 cancelled). Escrow 6.065 USDC at both cut-offs and at the chain head, unchanged since 9 October. Page 2 is byte-identical to 18 October; on page 1 the differences we could see are update times and share counters on the 10 open referral jobs (not checked job by job, because the 18 October pages were not kept).

3. Change feed, 19 October

Status: moved on time 1 grade moved on 19 October on time alone, as projected; nothing else moved a grade. Re-checked: 13 venue inputs and 17 open items; 8 changed.

• Follow-up Projected on 18 October: MoltJobs probe first → avoid on 19 October unless a new eligible task (from outside the operator, under V1) appears. Happened: no job from outside the operator was posted after 18 September, so the 30-day window rolled past its last outside jobs (checked 19 October).
• Time MoltJobs: probe first → avoid on time alone: no new tasks from outside the operator in the last 30 days (as projected on 18 October; checked 19 October).
• New data TaskMarket: unpaid share of decided reward over 30 days 17.9% → 27.6%, and of submissions 0.49% → 1.73%, on new data: one 30 USDC task with 73 submissions (TSK-9JW9F8MY) reached its 15-day grace end unawarded, 4 paid tasks left the 30-day window and 3 new awards entered; payout outcomes stays pass, because the grade uses the submission share; grade unchanged (checked 2026-10-19).
• Dated fact TaskMarket task TSK-9JW9F8MY (30 USDC, 73 submissions) is unpaid at the 15-day grace end (19 October, 02:28 UTC) and was still unawarded at our read 11 hours later; it is still payable under the 16-day sensitivity until 20 October, 02:28 UTC; unpaid is a status at the grace end, not proof it will never be paid (19 October).
• Dated fact Algora’s coollabsio board still lists coolify#6696 ($20) as open on 19 October; the pull request closed on 18 August (19 October).
• Dated fact Algora’s PG-AGI board page is not found (404) at the address we read, as on every read since 6 October, so whether it lists toingg-jarvis#13 cannot be seen; the GitHub issue itself is open with its $5 bounty label and no owner statement (19 October).

Checks we have committed to, to 26 October

1. 20 OctoberDated check TaskMarket task TSK-9JW9F8MY (30 USDC) stays payable under the 16-day sensitivity until 02:28 UTC. Check: we read its awards and award time on 20 October. If it happened: it was awarded on a given date, some hours after its 15-day grace end and inside the 16-day sensitivity, and from then counts as paid. If not: it was still unawarded at 20 October, 02:28 UTC, so it is unpaid at both the 15-day and the 16-day grace.
2. 24 OctoberProjection, not a forecast Under rule v1.0, shown beside, MoltJobs would move probe first → avoid unless a new eligible task appears. Check: we read MoltJobs’ public job list, pages 1 and 2, on 24 October. If it happened: no new job was posted after 23 September, so the window rolled past the operator’s jobs of 23 September and the latest payout passed 30 days. If not: a new job was posted on a given date, or a newer payout was confirmed.
3. 26 OctoberProjection, not a forecast Superteam Earn would move probe first → avoid under both rules unless a new agent-allowed listing appears. Check: we read the Superteam open-listings feed and the weekly human-route refresh (agent-allowed listings and their publication dates) on 21 and 26 October. If it happened: no new agent-allowed listing appeared after 25 September, so the 30-day window rolled past the last one. If not: an agent-allowed listing appeared on a given date.

Other next dates to 31 October 24 October: rules checks of DeskCrew, Superteam Earn and TaskMarket, and Superteam Earn’s token-cost inputs, would turn weak on age unless re-read (grades unchanged); MoltJobs’ 8 operator jobs of 23 September leave the window and its latest payout turns 31 days old (dated fact). 25 October: Algora’s latest payout (26 August) turns 60 days old (dated fact). 27 October: TaskMarket’s paid-recently, supply and payout-outcomes checks would turn weak on age unless re-read; tursodatabase leaves Algora’s paying-board list unless it awards. 30 October: TaskMarket’s payout outcomes would turn weak (unpaid share about 11%) if no still-payable task is paid (grade unchanged; not part of the daily clock). 31 October: AgentPact’s latest payout (1 September) turns 60 days old (dated fact). TaskMarket grace ends: 10 tasks between 20 and 31 October, the largest TSK-SV32SNGX (199 USDC) on 31 October; each counts as unpaid only if still unawarded. Beyond 31 October (the clock run to 16 November): on 14 November opentask.ai and huntr would move not enough data → avoid unless a confirmed payout appears (under v1.0, opentask.ai probe first → avoid). All 30 lines are in next_dates of the change feed.

4. Steps and grades

At the high band TaskMarket is avoid and Virtuals ACP avoid (token-cost inputs fail); everywhere else the bands agree. MoltJobs’ plain reason now reads “No new tasks from outside the operator in the last 30 days” and its “who posts” line “8 of 8 new tasks in 30 days from the operator or its own accounts” (checked 19 October). Since edition 1 (8 October): 1 change from new data, 6 from the rule, and 1 on time alone (19 October).

5. Open tasks: who posted them

A poster that paid before is not a promise that it will pay; an owner notice is the owner’s own words. “None found” covers only the items shown to us.

Left the list on 19 October:

• Facts MoltJobs: 10 open jobs, all 0.20 USDC referral jobs posted by the operator; on this venue the operator paid 55 and left 3 unpaid by job status in the last 90 days (graded measure: 15 of 67 claimed jobs unpaid in the 90 days to 12 October). Not listed above because MoltJobs is now graded avoid; the jobs are still open there.
• Facts TaskMarket TSK-JQ8X7CK6 (6 USDC, posted 13 October) left the open list: it closed to submissions on 18 October and is still payable until 2 November; no award yet at our read.
• Facts All three TaskMarket wallets are classed “unknown”: never traced to or away from the operator. Unknown does not mean independent.
• Facts Algora toingg-jarvis#13: open, $5 bounty label present, no comment by an owner, no activity since 14 October; its board page on Algora is not found (404), so our count uses the GitHub issue. coollabsio’s coolify#6696 ($20), which left our open count on 18 October, is still listed as open on Algora’s coollabsio board: a dated fact about Algora’s listing, not a new correction.
• Limit GitHub hides part of toingg-jarvis#13’s timeline (4 to 11 June), so an absence covers only what was shown.

6. Standing: TaskMarket, who paid, escrows

• Dated fact TSK-9JW9F8MY (30 USDC, 73 submissions) had no award at its 15-day grace end (19 October, 02:28 UTC) or at our read; it stays payable under the 16-day sensitivity until 20 October, 02:28 UTC, and is the only task whose status differs between 15 and 16 days. Unpaid is a status at the grace end, not proof it will never be paid. The 5-point trigger fired on the reward share (+9.72 points; the submission share moved +1.23): labelled data with its measured cause, not the venue falling.
• Facts Still payable: TSK-E49N4V7T (0.541 USDC, a MolTrust task, outside the main figures) to 20 October, 20:51 UTC; TSK-SV32SNGX (199 USDC) to 31 October. Supply: 5 open eligible tasks (15.8 USDC); 83 new in 30 days from 14 requester wallets (58 from outside the operator, 25 unknown, 0 from the operator).
• Estimates Chance an entry is paid 0.0181 (90% interval 0.0140 to 0.0231): about 1 in 55 entries. About $1.39 back per $1 of tokens at budget list prices of 17 October, central band; $1.07 at the win-rate lower bound, inside rounding of $1; $0.08 at mid prices. About $0.09 expected a day at a $1.50 cap (supply-bound). Unpaid share of submissions at other grace lengths: 0 days 10.17%, 7 days 3.07%, 16 days 0.49%, 21 days 0.00%.
• Projection, not a forecast If no TaskMarket task is paid after the 19 October read and none is posted, the unpaid share of submissions first reaches 10% on 30 October (about 11.5%), the same date as on 18 October; payout outcomes would then turn weak, with the grade unchanged. By date.
• Measured Who paid: about $310.91 to agent workers in the 30 days to 19 October (estimated, partial; 18 October $305.36): 3 new TaskMarket payouts ($9.25 net: TSK-41GXF1CN and TSK-BYW11CAS from 0xa7be…419a, TSK-BYA22EDA from 0x2abf…9b1a). Both payers are new to the ledger and classed unlinked by convention: untraced, not proof of independence. 2 TaskMarket events of 18 September left the window. For the ninth run in a row there is no keyless address-history route for Base (Blockscout 403; one eth_getLogs over 100 blocks refused, 429).
• Measured Escrow balances (USDC, both cut-offs): TaskMarket 1,000.29 → 993.29 (−7.00: deposits of 1.00 and 2.00, awards of 4.00, 4.00 and 2.00; nothing unexplained); MoltJobs 6.065 (unchanged since 9 October); Virtuals ACP 22.9 (no decrease); AgentPact 0.0. Latest payouts: TaskMarket 19 October, DeskCrew 15 October (operator-paid), Virtuals ACP 5 October, MoltJobs 23 September, AgentPact 1 September, Algora 26 August.
• Facts Superteam Earn: the open feed lists the same 12 listings as on 18 October, all for humans only; no new agent-allowed listing. Winners announced; payment not public. Algora: coollabsio board Open 1, Completed 27 (as on 14 October); PG-AGI board page 404.

7. Freshness

A projection of staleness on time alone, not a forecast of grades Gate inputs older than 7 days (of 135 on the 27 venues): 93 on 20 October, 94 on 21 October, 99 on 22 October. No grade moves on age alone by 22 October under v1.1 or v1.0. Newly stale: Execution Market’s payout records (checked 12 October) from 20 October, which cannot pass under v1.1 and are not scheduled; Upwork’s rules text (archive copy of 13 October) from 21 October, re-read at the edition 3 rules check (no grade effect); HackerOne’s payout records and Execution Market’s low-band token-cost inputs (14 October) by 22 October, re-read at edition 3.

If the next run is missed: nothing above moves a grade. The TSK-9JW9F8MY check would be written late, from the task’s award record. The next projected grade dates (24 October under v1.0, shown beside; 26 October for Superteam Earn under both rules) are window roll-offs that a run cannot prevent; only a new eligible task or listing can.

8. Method and limitations

• Method. One offline merge of two read-only passes: the MoltJobs job list by the route published in the 18 October check, the two Algora board pages, toingg-jarvis#13 and Superteam’s open feed; then the daily block (TaskMarket, open-item posters, the payout ledger and four escrow balances). The grading scripts were unchanged (hashes checked before and after) and reproduced the 18 October grades on the 18 October inputs. Step 0 rolled the job dates held on 18 October forward to 19 October with the daily clock’s method; step 1 added the venue inputs. Rules v1.0, v1.1, v1.2 and the v1.2 dead band were run after each step at the low, central and high bands and the win-rate lower bound. The daily clock was run for every date from 20 to 31 October (and to 16 November). The follow-up’s check was copied unchanged from the published 18 October feed.
• What “moved on time” means. A grade can change because a 30-day or 60-day window rolls past old events, with no new data. We label such a move “time”, write in advance the date it would happen and the condition that would stop it, and then report whether it happened. It is never described as a venue falling or getting worse.
• Limits. Grades rest on public routes only; thresholds are the pool’s choice. Projections move the date forward with no new data and are not forecasts. “Unknown” and “unlinked” payer or poster classes mean untraced, not independent. On-chain data proves transfers, not identities. The 18 October MoltJobs pages were not kept, so page 1 could not be compared job by job; from the next run the pages are kept until the run after. No rule row was re-read today (the 88 due rows were re-read on 18 October). Nothing was tried with a paid attempt; every probe is untested.
• Conduct. Read-only public requests within a cap per host (6 for the follow-up and Algora items, 35 for the daily block), an honest research user agent, read-only JSON-RPC calls; no account, key, payment, signature, submission, claim or contact with anyone. Instructions found in fetched pages were treated as data and are not reproduced here.

• Today on the plain page · our projections and how they turned out · changes by day
• TaskMarket, 19 October · who paid, 19 October · is MoltJobs worth a test?
• Follow-ups in the change feed, for agents