Shaduf.Research preview
Agentic Freelance: Jobs & Agent Networks/No venue clears every check on 23 October; MoltJobs' one outside job closed unfunded and unclaimed (grade unchanged); Superteam Earn's 26 October avoid projection stands.

Research report · 23 October 2026 · daily update of edition 3 · rule v1.2 (published from 22 October)

No venue clears every check on 23 October; MoltJobs’ one outside job closed unfunded and unclaimed (grade unchanged); Superteam Earn’s 26 October avoid projection stands.

Today,

Changed today
No grade moved on 23 October data.
Checked today
MoltJobs’ outside job closed unfunded and unclaimed, by its record times; TaskMarket’s TSK-6BHK4EGT was not awarded by 15 days, still payable at 18.
Next
Superteam Earn would move to avoid on 26 October unless an agent listing appears (projection, not a forecast).

Under rule v1.2, nothing moved a grade on 23 October: 4 venues worth a capped test, 6 with not enough public data, 17 avoid, and none clears every check.

MoltJobs’ only outside job (20 USDC) closed at 17:50 UTC on 22 October without funding or a claim, decided by the record’s own times. MoltJobs’ grade does not change either way until 18 November, because the job counts by the day it was posted, and its paid work and most posted jobs come from the operator’s own accounts.

TaskMarket task TSK-6BHK4EGT (5 USDC) was not awarded by its 15-day point (the 15-day sensitivity); at the edition grace of 18 days, our grace for the week, it stays payable until 26 October, 06:41 UTC.

Superteam Earn moves to avoid on 26 October if no agent listing appears (projection, not a forecast); last read 22 October: none; next read 26 October.

23 October in one table (rule v1.2, central band)
VenueWhat we readGrade
MoltJobsOutside job 90bf05bc (20 USDC): closed on 22 October, 17:50 UTC, with no claim and no funding, by the record’s own fields; shown as cancelled on 23 Octoberprobe first, unchanged (the job counts until 18 November)
TaskMarketTSK-6BHK4EGT: no award by its 15-day point; one new award (6 USDC); 3 new tasks, two of whose deposits we could not find on Baseprobe first, unchanged
Superteam Earnnot read on 23 October (read on 21 and 22 October: no agent listing)probe first; avoid on 26 October unless one appears (projection)
All 27 graded venues4 venue inputs and 1 rule row re-checked; 16 open items listed0 go with owner, 4 probe first, 6 not enough data, 17 avoid
  • As of , inputs read the same day (13:57 to 14:02 UTC)
  • Rule v1.2 published from 22 October; v1.1 (0 / 4 / 5 / 18) and v1.0 (0 / 9 / 18) shown beside
  • 0 accounts, wallet connections, payments, entries, submissions or contacts
  • Every probe, walkthrough and owner step untested

Data behind this report. changes-grades.json (the change feed, with today_box, since_edition3 and both checks in followups[] with their deciding_timestamps), open-items.json (16 items; deposit_flag on two), projections-record.json, shortlist.json, settlement.json, payouts.json (totals_2026_10_23) and answers.json. Wallets are shortened in the text; explorer links keep the full address. The plain page is Where to point your agent this week, with the details one click below. The previous report is edition 3, 22 October 2026.

1. The answer

  • Did not happen MoltJobs’ outside job 90bf05bc (20 USDC) closed at 17:50 UTC on 22 October without funding or a claim. The record decides it: no claim time, funded false with no escrow transaction, and the deadline not moved; the only write after our 22 October read is dated 18:04:19 UTC, 14 minutes after the close. As supporting evidence, the MoltJobs escrow held 6.065 USDC at the close block, the same as before. At our 23 October read the job is shown as cancelled; the record carries no cancellation time. MoltJobs’ grade is unchanged (probe first): the job counts as outside supply by the day it was posted, until 18 November. “Outside” means a poster ID not linked to the operator’s known accounts, which is not proof of independence.
  • Did not happen TaskMarket TSK-6BHK4EGT (5 USDC, 81 entries) was not awarded by its 15-day point (06:41 UTC on 23 October); the award record holds no award. The grace of 18 days governs the published status: it stays payable until 26 October, 06:41 UTC. At the 15-day sensitivity it would count as unpaid.
  • Nothing moved No gate or grade moved on time alone or on 23 October data, under v1.2, v1.1 or v1.0, at any band. Counts under v1.2 (central): 0 / 4 / 6 / 17 (go with owner / probe first / not enough data / avoid); v1.1 0 / 4 / 5 / 18; v1.0 0 / 9 / 18. Re-checked: 4 venue inputs (TaskMarket and MoltJobs changed, neither enough to move a check; AgentPact and Virtuals ACP escrows unchanged) and 1 rule row (unchanged).
  • Projection, not a forecast Next dates: Superteam Earn moves to avoid on 26 October if no agent listing appears (last read 22 October: none; next read 26 October). TSK-6BHK4EGT is checked again at its 18-day grace end on 26 October, by award time. Edition 4 is due about 29 October. Beyond 31 October: AgentPact on 1 November, opentask.ai and huntr on 14 November, MoltJobs on 19 November.

2. The two checks, decided by record times

Both checks were written on 22 October with how they would be decided: by the record’s own fields and timestamps, never by the state at the hour we read.

MoltJobs job 90bf05bc at its close

Did not happen Closed at 17:50 UTC on 22 October without funding or a claim.

Cut-off
22 Oct, 17:50:11 UTC
Claim time
none on the record
Funded
false; no escrow transaction
Deadline
22 Oct, 17:50:11 UTC, not moved
Last write
22 Oct, 18:04:19 UTC, 14 minutes after the close
Escrow at the close block
6.065 USDC, as before (supporting evidence only)
Our read
23 Oct, 13:57 UTC (not deciding)

Shown as cancelled at our 23 October read; the record carries no cancellation time. Grade unchanged (probe first): the job counts by the day it was posted, until 18 November. MoltJobs’ paid work and most posted jobs come from the operator’s own accounts; “outside” means a poster ID not linked to the operator’s known accounts, which is not proof of independence.

TaskMarket TSK-6BHK4EGT at its 15-day point

Did not happen Not awarded by its 15-day point (the 15-day sensitivity check).

Cut-off
23 Oct, 06:41:32 UTC (closed 8 Oct, 06:41:32, plus 15 days)
Award times
none (0 awards on the record)
Cancelled
no
Our read
23 Oct, 13:57 UTC (not deciding)
Published status
still payable: our grace for the week is 18 days, to 26 Oct, 06:41 UTC
At 15 days
it would count as unpaid at the grace end

5 USDC, 81 entries. Checked again on 26 October at its 18-day grace end, by award time. Unpaid is a status at the grace end, not proof it will never be paid.

MoltJobs job 90bf05bc, from posting to our 23 October read. From the job’s public record and the escrow balance on chain. Times are UTC.
  1. Posted 20 USDC, by a poster ID new on the venue and not linked to the operator’s known accounts; not funded; deadline 22 October, 17:50.
  2. Our read Open, not funded, no claim, no agent.
  3. Close The deadline passes unmoved with no claim time and no escrow transaction; the escrow holds 6.065 USDC at the close block, the same as before.
  4. Last write The record’s only write after our 22 October read, 14 minutes after the close.
  5. Our read Shown as cancelled; funded false; no claim. The record has no cancellation time.

What the record does not show There is no status history. The last-write time shows only the last write, so a claim or funding made and undone between 13:53 and 18:04 UTC on 22 October would leave no trace on this record. The escrow balance at the close block is consistent with no deposit at or before the close.

3. Today’s feed and since edition 3

Status: nothing moved Nothing moved a grade on 23 October. Re-checked: 4 venue inputs and 1 rule row; 2 changed (TaskMarket and MoltJobs), neither enough to move a check under any rule.

Since edition 3 (22 October): no grade changed under rule v1.2 (0 from new data, 0 on time alone, 0 from the rule or counting); no check moved under v1.2, v1.1 or v1.0 (shown beside). Band-only grade items: none. Corrections: none. Dated facts and data without a check move: 11. Maintenance (odds lines rebuilt): 2.

Today’s 13 items (new data 4, dated facts 7, maintenance 2; no rule or counting item, no correction):

  • New data TaskMarket: a 6 USDC task was awarded on 22 October, about 7 hours after it closed (5.55 USDC to the winner on chain); payout records stay pass (checked 23 October).
  • New data TaskMarket: 5 open tasks and 82 new in 30 days (3 open on 22 October); for 2 of the open tasks we could not find the deposit on Base; dated task counts stay pass (checked 23 October).
  • New data TaskMarket: 1.79% of submissions in 30 days went to tasks that paid nobody by their grace end (18 days; 1.73% on 22 October); payout outcomes stay pass (checked 23 October).
  • New data MoltJobs: 10 open jobs, all the operator’s referral jobs, and 9 new in 30 days (one from an outside poster, now closed); dated task counts unchanged (checked 23 October).
  • Dated fact MoltJobs’ outside job 90bf05bc is shown as cancelled at our 23 October read; the record carries no cancellation time (23 October).
  • Dated fact No outside job is open on MoltJobs at our 23 October read; all 10 open jobs are the operator’s 0.2 USDC referral jobs (its paid work and most posted jobs come from the operator’s own accounts) (23 October).
  • Dated fact For two open TaskMarket tasks (TSK-KCKBZCY3, 10 USDC; TSK-FRGMGTXW, 3 USDC) we could not find the deposit on Base at our 14:01 UTC read; we count them as the venue lists them and re-read both receipts in the next run (23 October).
  • Dated fact Of the 92 USDC that left TaskMarket’s escrow on 20 October, 8.0 USDC is now traced to refunds to one requester (2.0 found on 22 October, 6.0 on 23 October); 84.0 USDC is not identified. Refunds are not counted as payouts (20 October).
  • Dated fact On two TaskMarket tasks awaiting settlement, the requester’s reject-submission action shows an end time of 30 October, 02:45 UTC; the venue does not document what it means (23 October).
  • Dated fact ArcRun (agent contests; triage, not graded): the site labels itself Arc Testnet and shows an undated results list in testnet units; no funded cash prize is shown. That its USDC prizes are test tokens with no cash value is a hypothesis (23 October).
  • Dated fact trybounty.ai’s ‘$100K+ verified earnings’ claim is unchanged since 9 October and no public bid, award or payout record is visible; a platform statement, not evidence that any agent was paid (23 October).
  • Maintenance TaskMarket: the shown odds line was rebuilt from inputs re-read on 23 October (shown text only; grades unaffected).
  • Maintenance MoltJobs: the shown odds line was rebuilt from inputs re-read on 23 October (shown text only; grades unaffected).

4. Open tasks: who posted them

We list 16 open tasks under rule v1.2: TaskMarket 5 (each poster paid there in the last 90 days and left none unpaid at the 18-day grace; for 2 of them we could not find the deposit on Base; entries shown, award slots not shown), MoltJobs 10 (all operator referral jobs; no outside job open) and Algora 1 (read 21 October).

  • TaskMarket TSK-KCKBZCY3 (10 USDC, posted 22 October): posted by 0x4c98…9dc7 (a requester wallet outside the operator); on this venue it paid 4 and left 0 unpaid in the last 90 days (same at the 15- and 18-day grace); 92 entries so far; award slots not shown by the venue (read 13:58 UTC). We could not find its deposit on Base at our 14:01 UTC read (the venue lists it as open; we count it as listed).
  • TaskMarket TSK-1XX8G7AY (10 USDC, posted 21 October): the same requester wallet; paid 4, unpaid 0 in 90 days; 228 entries so far; award slots not shown.
  • TaskMarket TSK-FRGMGTXW (3 USDC, posted 22 October): posted by 0x609e…086c (a requester wallet of unknown class); paid 1 and left 0 unpaid in 90 days at the 18-day grace (at 15 days: 1 paid and 1 unpaid); 82 entries so far. We could not find its deposit on Base at our 14:01 UTC read (counted as listed).
  • TaskMarket TSK-2E1NJWP3 and TSK-2VAKGE7V (1 USDC each, posted 23 and 22 October): posted by 0x506c…d026 (unknown class); paid 4, unpaid 0 in 90 days; 50 entries so far each.
  • MoltJobs: 10 open jobs, all referral jobs of 0.20 USDC posted by the operator (paid 55 and left 3 unpaid by job status in the last 90 days); no job from an outside poster is open on 23 October.
  • Algora: PG-AGI/toingg-jarvis#13 ($5; read 21 October).
  • Left the list: MoltJobs 90bf05bc (closed on 22 October without funding or a claim; still counts in the 30-day task count until 18 November) and TaskMarket TSK-88YN3100 (1 USDC; closed to submissions on 22 October, still payable until 9 November at the 18-day grace).

Entries are a count, not odds. A poster that paid before is not a promise that it will pay. “Unknown” class means never traced, not independent.

5. Next dates, with the checks we will run

26 dated items to 31 October; 5 carry a check. The ones that matter most:

  1. Dated check We re-read the deposit receipts of TaskMarket tasks TSK-KCKBZCY3 and TSK-FRGMGTXW (we could not find them on 23 October); no grade effect.
  2. Projection, not a forecast Superteam Earn would move probe first → avoid unless a new eligible task from outside the operator appears (same date under v1.1 and v1.0). Read on 21 and 22 October: no agent listing; next read 26 October.
  3. Dated check TaskMarket task TSK-6BHK4EGT reaches its grace end at the edition grace (18 days) at 06:41 UTC; it counts as unpaid only if still unawarded. Checked by award time.
  4. Planned Edition 4: rules, prices and the TaskMarket grace re-read; the grace definition decided by the criteria fixed on 23 October.
  5. Projection, not a forecast AgentPact on 1 November (rule v1.2), opentask.ai and huntr on 14 November, MoltJobs on 19 November unless another outside job appears (same date under v1.1 and v1.0 for MoltJobs and opentask.ai); TaskMarket: no grade change projected to 19 November (tasks posted on 22 and 23 October stay in its 30-day window).

Other dated items, no grade effect: TSK-E49N4V7T (MolTrust, 0.541 USDC, outside the main figures) reached its 18-day grace end at 20:51 UTC on 23 October, after our read; MoltJobs’ 8 operator jobs of 23 September leave the 30-day window on 24 October; Algora’s latest payout turns 60 days old on 25 October; HackerOne’s latest public paid report passes 30 days on 25 October; tursodatabase leaves Algora’s paying-board list on 27 October unless it awards; on 30 and 31 October several checks of DeskCrew, MoltJobs and TaskMarket turn weak on age unless re-read (edition 4 re-reads them first); TSK-DC8ZPFT6 and TSK-13QHZKQK reach their grace ends on 30 and 31 October. The full clock.

6. Our projections and how they turned out

Every projection and dated check published since edition 2, in its place: happened 2, did not happen 3, withdrawn 1, moved 1, not yet due 2. Today the two 23 October rows read “did not happen”; the two 26 October rows (Superteam Earn; TSK-6BHK4EGT at 18 days) stay “not yet due”. The table · projections-record.json.

7. Standing: TaskMarket, who paid, MoltJobs

TaskMarket, 30 days to 23 October, without MolTrust
FigureAt 18 days (published)At 15 days (sensitivity)
Statuses: awarded / unpaid at the grace end / still payable / open68 / 4 / 12 / 768 / 5 / 11 / 7
Chance an entry is paid (90% interval)0.0186 (0.0143–0.0244)0.0184 (0.0139–0.0238)
Unpaid share of submissions / of reward1.79% / 27.51%3.18% / 28.95%
90-day history: unpaid share of submissions / of reward16.29% / 33.04%16.55% / 33.23%
First date with 10% of submissions unpaid if nothing is awarded (projection, not a forecast)2 November30 October
  • Facts Supply: 5 open eligible tasks (25.0 USDC) and 82 new in 30 days (2.73 a day) from 13 requesters; the top requester posted 47.6%. Open by class: outside 2, unknown 3 (unknown means never traced). New award: TSK-C3AZ36J4, 6.0 USDC gross, 5.55 net, on 22 October at 15:24 UTC (0.30 days after it closed). Two tasks moved to awaiting settlement.
  • Deposits we could not find For TSK-KCKBZCY3 (10 USDC) and TSK-FRGMGTXW (3 USDC) the receipt lookup for the escrow transaction returned nothing at our 14:01 UTC read, and the escrow balance change balances exactly without those two deposits. We count both as the venue lists them. Hypothesis, untested they are not funded in the escrow on Base. Sensitivity, not written in advance without them TaskMarket would show 3 open eligible tasks (12.0 USDC) and 80 new in 30 days; dated task counts would still pass.
  • Estimates At 22 October list prices about $1.43 back per $1 of tokens at budget-tier prices (central band), $1.10 at the low end of the win rate (inside rounding of $1), $0.10 at mid-tier prices; at $1.50 a day about 2.73 attempts and $0.09 expected per day.
  • Who paid No keyless log route for the twelfth run in a row (Blockscout 403; one log query refused with 429), so the fallback was used. 24-hour ledger: 1 new event (5.55 USDC net; payer 0x6349…4d24, already in the ledger, class unlinked; unlinked is not proof of independence). The 30-day estimate stays about $358.18 (estimated, partial). Escrow balances (USDC; 22 October cut-off / 23 October cut-off): TaskMarket 843.386 / 838.386 (−5.0, reconciled: +1.0 deposit, −6.0 award); MoltJobs 6.065 / 6.065; Virtuals ACP 22.9 / 22.9; AgentPact 0 / 0.
  • Watch Of the 92 USDC that left TaskMarket’s escrow on 20 October, 8.0 USDC is now traced to refunds to one requester; 84.0 USDC is not identified. The 69.0 USDC piece left in at least four steps (6.0, 9.0, 14.0 and 40.0 USDC) between 10:29 and 10:33 UTC; the first step is a 6.0 USDC transfer from the escrow to the same requester. Hypothesis, untested the rest are further refunds.
  • MoltJobs (its paid work and most posted jobs come from the operator’s own accounts) Public list 123 jobs, none new since 22 October; one status change (90bf05bc, open → shown as cancelled). Its own stats: 123 jobs, 57 completed, 3.8 USDC in escrow by its own count; registered agents 1,197 → 1,212; agents bidding in 30 days 83 → 84. The escrow contract holds 6.065 USDC; the 2.265 USDC difference is not explained by any open or in-progress job on its public list.

8. Shadow grace (shadow only, not used for any status)

On 22 October we showed that TaskMarket’s grace depends on the hour we read. On 23 October, before any of edition 4’s data, we fixed a candidate method and the criteria edition 4 will use to decide it: the 90th percentile of TaskMarket’s own positive award delays, computed at a fixed 00:00 UTC; the current statistic (95th percentile) at that fixed time as the fallback; and a 95th percentile capped at 30 days, shown only. The criteria do not look at the direction of any change.

Shadow only, not used for any status At 00:00 UTC on 23 October the candidate gives 12 days; the same statistic as now at that fixed time gives 18, and the capped version 18. Over the 29 days to 23 October the candidate ranged 10–12 days, the fixed-time 95th percentile 14–59. Our published grace stays 18 days to edition 4; our usual method at our 13:58 UTC read would give 23 days (shown only). At 12 days, 2 statuses would differ from 18 at our read (TSK-6BHK4EGT and TSK-E49N4V7T, a MolTrust task). None of these is our count.

Shadow grace at 00:00 UTC each day, 25 September to 23 October (shadow only, not used for any status) Three ways of computing TaskMarket’s grace at a fixed time of day, from its own award delays. The candidate (90th percentile) stays between 10 and 12 days. The fixed-time 95th percentile runs 14 to 22 days, jumps to 59 on 21 October and is 18 on 23 October. The version capped at 30 days follows it but stops at 30. Our published grace for the week is 18 days. 0 20 40 60 25 Sep 5 Oct 15 Oct 23 Oct 59 (21 Oct) 12
  • Candidate: 90th percentile at 00:00 UTC (10–12 days)
  • Same statistic as now (95th percentile) at 00:00 UTC (14–59)
  • 95th percentile capped at 30, shown only (14–30)
  • Published grace for the week: 18 days
Days of grace each method would give at 00:00 UTC on each date. A property of the 23 October task list only; edition 4 judges stability on its own list. Shadow only, not used for any status. The method in full.

9. Triage and one rule row

  • ArcRun (agent forecasting, trading-volume and puzzle contests; triage, not graded). Verified from the site’s own text the site labels itself Arc Testnet, and its docs page is titled for a different product, Agon, a marketplace for agent services. It shows an undated results list in testnet units; no funded cash prize is shown. Hypotheses its USDC prizes are probably test tokens with no cash value (not checked on chain); the site may be moving from contests to Agon; ArcRun is probably not the unnamed platform behind an entrant’s report of about $28 in October. Untested the owner steps from its own pages: connect a wallet on Arc Testnet (gas paid in testnet USDC), register the agent, optional paid tier upgrades; no entry fee, KYC, country or identity step seen. Proposed evidence level E4 (organiser results list in testnet units, undated); recommendation: watch. Its published contract addresses are kept for a later check and were not traced in this run.
  • trybounty.ai (platform statements only): its “$100K+ verified earnings” claim is unchanged since 9 October; its docs describe the bid process of 20 October; no public bid, award or payout record is visible; payouts go by Stripe Connect. No grade effect.
  • One rule row from a fixed archive copy: a huntr rule row was re-read from its fixed archive snapshot (1 May 2026). Its text is unchanged from the 16 October baseline and “none found” holds. Its date stays 1 May 2026: the date of a fixed snapshot does not renew. Our rules count now has that category: live page or API 195, fixed snapshot (date does not renew) 1, archive re-dated by a newer capture or live page 12, archive snapshot meeting the fixed-snapshot test but not assigned this run 5.

10. Clock and freshness

A projection from the rule, not a forecast On every date from 24 to 31 October and to 19 November, under v1.2, its dead band, v1.1 and v1.0: the only grade date to 31 October is Superteam Earn on 26 October under every rule, unless an agent listing appears. To 19 November: AgentPact on 1 November (v1.2 only), opentask.ai and huntr on 14 November, MoltJobs on 19 November. TaskMarket has no grade change projected to 19 November. Re-run on 23 October: no date differs from the clock published on 22 October.

If the next runs are missed Inputs older than 7 days: 102 on 24 October, rising to 128 on 30 October. No grade moves on age alone. Upwork’s rules text turns weak on 24 October; DeskCrew’s token-cost and paid-recently inputs on 25 and 26 October (neither can pass on a re-read); Superteam Earn’s token-cost input on 29 October; most rules inputs read on 22 October on 30 October.

11. Method and limitations

  • Grades use the published engines unchanged (hashes checked before and after); the same engines reproduce the 22 October grades at every band, and the time step equals the clock written before the run for every record and band.
  • Both checks were decided by the records’ own fields and timestamps. MoltJobs’ record has no status history: a claim or funding made and undone between 13:53 and 18:04 UTC on 22 October would leave no trace on it. The escrow balance at the close block supports, but does not decide, the result.
  • “Unpaid” is a status at the grace end, not proof a task will never be paid. A poster that paid before is not a promise that it will pay. “Outside” means not linked to the operator’s known accounts; unlinked is not proof of independence.
  • Facts and hypotheses are kept apart. Projections, the shadow grace, untested owner steps and the hypotheses on ArcRun, the two deposits we could not find and the 84 USDC are labelled as such.
  • Requests: ArcRun 6, an archive copy 1, trybounty.ai 3, MoltJobs 4, TaskMarket 11, one block-explorer test (403), 27 calls to a public Base endpoint (one refused). No account, wallet connection, key, entry, submission, payment or contact; no item text, name or handle stored; wallets shortened in the text.
Search Shaduf

Search published pools, pages, reports, and evidence.