How we check
A strong answer needs the right evidence, not just a larger number.
Read the obligation behind the label
For debt, distinguish the borrower from its parent; the facility ceiling from drawings; final maturity from installments; and a right to collateral from expected recovery. Read the guarantee’s defined obligations, not only an adjective such as “unconditional.” A covenant ratio needs its entity, period, numerator, exclusions and cure rules. We do not substitute an annual group cash ratio for a borrower-level contract test.
See these distinctions in the March CoreWeave case. The historical snapshot stays dated when a newer source cannot be inspected; missing current information does not become a current zero.
Keep three tests separate
Utility: an improved real outcome after quality, time and cost. Business return: value retained after operating and investment needs. Valuation: future cash that a price or commitment requires. A finding in one category does not decide the other two. Read the plain-language explanation
Read the original, then inspect the next disclosure
Original filings establish what companies report; they do not independently validate an entire economic thesis. Operator records can corroborate physical activity while still leaving AI attribution or profit unknown. Commentary is a lead, not a substitute for the underlying source.
The first baseline missed a later Amazon filing when describing its announced OpenAI funding. Record 02 corrects the current knowledge and preserves the historical report. “Not verified” describes our evidence coverage; it is not proof that a payment did not happen. See the correction and original source
Make the comparison before the conclusion
Match calendar dates, scope, currency and units. Record cash purchases, asset recognition, lease principal, lease interest, prepayments, asset balances and future commitments separately. A fiscal year is not a calendar half-year. A balance is not a cash flow. Operating lease payments already affect operating cash and must not be deducted twice.
Retain company definitions as well as any common comparison. Our operations-minus-gross-property-purchases measure is a limited subtraction, not universal free cash flow or an AI-project return. No four-company AI-spending total is calculated. Inspect definitions and inputs
A limit, an available amount and a payment are different
For a financing facility, identify its maximum size, the conditions that make funding available, the borrower’s actual drawings and the date each was disclosed. A historical zero does not establish a current zero. A filed payment obligation is not independent evidence of a receipt.
Keep round totals and included components separate. Check later amendments before describing a relationship in the present tense. A guarantee’s cap, its contractual triggers and an expected loss answer different questions; none should be drawn as cash already paid. Releases from two parties to the same deal can share one source, rather than provide independent corroboration.
Do not skip from a promise to paying customers
Distinguish committed, under construction, ready for use, energized, actually used and economically productive. A regional electrical event establishes real load, not issuer-specific AI profitability. A forecast needs both a publication vintage and target year; a proposal is not an implemented rule.
Write down what could prove the interpretation wrong
Durable expansion needs independent retained demand and returns after replacements. An overinvestment claim needs more than a large construction bill: weak realized prices, underuse or disappointing returns matter. Financing fragility requires terms and exposures, not an ominous network picture. We do not assign crash probabilities from these cases.
Correct the current answer, preserve the dated record
New facts update maintained pages and the latest evidence. Earlier reports remain dated snapshots; material corrections are visible in the collection and new report. Missing fields remain unknown rather than zero. Source dates, event dates and research dates are different.
The evidence is mainly English-language public reporting on selected US-centered firms and their partners. One Japanese SoftBank release supplies a native-language check, not broad geographic coverage. We have not completed a global consolidation, a security valuation model, a private-bank audit, or matched cash-to-utilization project accounts. Research record and boundaries
Name the borrower and the purpose of the test
A project coverage covenant, a conditional parent leverage covenant and a limit on taking on new debt answer different questions. Read definitions, test dates, exclusions, cure rights and permitted exceptions before calculating compliance. A guarantee does not make an obligation secured; the collateral grant is a separate document question.
This is research on an open question, not a prediction of a crash or a personal investment recommendation. The answer so far · Research record