Research report · 15 October 2026 · seventeenth check
Seventeenth check: the right-eye relay reading with 10 matched controls
On 13 Oct the right-eye half of our relay headline rested on 5 activity-matched controls, and by our pre-registered rule one low control would have been enough to change it. This time we ran 5 more right-side controls. We also added 8 catalogue entries and 5 controls-ledger rows, and graded the Pokémon-on-a-Raspberry-Pi stream from its newly published code.
Short answer
The relay headline stays: The two sides disagree: on one side silencing the relays lowered the turn neuron's rate more than matched activity elsewhere, on the other it did not. We do not draw a conclusion.
Under it, the pre-registered update: 15 Oct: we ran 5 more matched controls on the right side, 10 in all. Every one of them left the turn neuron's rate higher than silencing the relays did (controls 38-47 Hz, relays 25.7 Hz), so the right-side reading did not change.
Our rule compares the relays with the lowest matched control, so extra controls can only make the relays look less special, never more.
8 new entries, 5 of them with a wiring comparison of their own (helps 1, mixed 2, no difference 1, not scored 1). The Pokémon stream moved from U to B, borderline C: its code runs the whole fly brain graph, but a hand-written arbiter picks the keys and chat can replace them, and there is no shuffled-wiring control.
The relays: 5 more matched controls on the right side
Our own test · pre-registered · brain only (Shiu et al. LIF on FlyWire v783) · one model · not a real fly
What we did. A looming shadow on the right eye drives the turn neuron on the far side (left DNa02). On 13 Oct we compared silencing the relay neurons (E2, and PVLP141 alone, P) with silencing other neurons matched one by one on activity, in 5 draws. Today we added draws 5-9 with the same matching rule and the same reading rule, on the right eye only; the left eye's reading cannot change with more draws under this rule, so no left trials were run.
Checks before reading (both passed). The draw maker reproduced the 13 Oct right-side draws 0-4 exactly (the same neurons, seeds and tries). A re-run of the 13 Oct right-eye seed-0 trial matched it on the four registered criteria (input file hash, 43 far-side DNa02 spikes, 27,446 whole-brain spikes and the set of active neurons); only timing and memory fields differ. We read "bit-equal" in the plan as these four criteria. The 5 new draws were each accepted on the first try, and no trial was cut.
| Draw | Run on | Rate (Hz) | Compared with E2 (25.7 Hz) |
|---|---|---|---|
| M0 | 13 Oct 2026 | 40 | higher |
| M1 | 13 Oct 2026 | 41 | higher |
| M2 | 13 Oct 2026 | 41 | higher |
| M3 | 13 Oct 2026 | 43 | higher |
| M4 | 13 Oct 2026 | 40 | higher |
| M5 | 15 Oct 2026 | 43 | higher |
| M6 | 15 Oct 2026 | 47 | higher |
| M7 | 15 Oct 2026 | 38 | higher |
| M8 | 15 Oct 2026 | 47 | higher |
| M9 | 15 Oct 2026 | 46 | higher |
Band of the 10 controls: 38-47 Hz (5 on 13 Oct: 40-43 Hz). 0 of 10 controls at or below E2, and 0 of 10 at or below PVLP141 alone, so both right-eye readings stay "fell more than matched activity". The left eye keeps its 13 Oct values and reading ("fell, like matched activity").
Descriptive only. One new control (draw 7, 38 Hz) is below the lower edge of the band with nothing silenced (40-49 Hz), so the controls now overlap the bottom of that band. 2 of the 10 right-side draws (draws 1 and 4, both from 13 Oct) include a neuron that synapses directly onto the far-side DNa02; none of the new draws does.
Our own test · pre-registered before the first trial (13 Oct 2026, 10:18 UTC; the 5 added right-side controls on 15 Oct 2026, 09:38 UTC) · brain only · one model · not a real fly
The pre-registered sentence, chosen by the rule fixed in advance:
The two sides disagree: on one side silencing the relays lowered the turn neuron's rate more than matched activity elsewhere, on the other it did not. We do not draw a conclusion.
15 Oct 2026 (pre-registered update line): 15 Oct: we ran 5 more matched controls on the right side, 10 in all. Every one of them left the turn neuron's rate higher than silencing the relays did (controls 38-47 Hz, relays 25.7 Hz), so the right-side reading did not change.
Our rule: Our rule compares the relays with the lowest matched control, so extra controls can only make the relays look less special, never more.
The 15 Oct trials and checks
What is new. On 9 Oct we silenced the relay neurons between the looming-sensitive cells and the turn neuron (DNa02) and compared that with silencing randomly picked active neurons. That random set removed 2-6 times as much activity as the relays (2.3 times for a shadow on the left eye, 5.8 times on the right), so the two were not like for like. This time each silenced relay neuron got its own partner outside the relays that fired about as often in the same trial (within 20% of its spike count), and the control silences those partners instead. Both arms of the comparison now remove about the same amount of activity.
Blue strip: the turn neuron's rate with nothing silenced (5 seeds). Dashed box and open circles: the matched-control draws (5 on the left; 10 on the right, the 5 added on 15 Oct with a thicker outline). Filled dots: the relay arms, one per seed; the bar is their mean. By the pre-registered rule a relay value below both the normal strip and every matched draw reads "fell more than matched activity"; below the strip but inside the matched draws it reads "fell, like matched activity". Left eye: E2 16.0 Hz, "fell, like matched activity". Right eye: E2 25.7 Hz, "fell more than matched activity". PVLP141 alone reads the same as E2 on each side.
| Shadow on | Nothing silenced (5 seeds) | Matched control (5 draws left, 10 right) | Relays E2 (3 seeds) | PVLP141 alone (3 seeds) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left eye (far side: right DNa02) | 24, 25, 25, 25, 21 band 21-25 | 19, 24, 19, 34, 13 band 13-34 | 15, 14, 19: mean 16.0 (about 67% of normal) fell, like matched activity | 19, 17, 17: mean 17.7 (about 74%) fell, like matched activity |
| Right eye (far side: left DNa02) | 43, 44, 41, 40, 49 band 40-49 | 40, 41, 41, 43, 40, 43, 47, 38, 47, 46 band 38-47; the last 5 added 15 Oct | 26, 25, 26: mean 25.7 (about 59% of normal) fell more than matched activity | 26, 31, 24: mean 27.0 (about 62%) fell more than matched activity |
- Small samples. 5 seeds per side; 5 matched draws on the left and 10 on the right; the relay arms have 3 seeds each. The left side's matched draws spread widely (13-34 Hz: three below the normal strip, one above it).
- Some matched partners touch the turn neuron. The matching rule excludes the two-step relays, not every input to the turn neuron: 1 of 5 left-side draws and 2 of 10 right-side draws (none of the 5 added on 15 Oct) include a neuron that synapses directly onto the far-side DNa02.
- E2 is mostly PVLP141. Of the activity removed by silencing the excitatory relays (E2), PVLP141 accounts for 102 of 149 spikes (left) and 103 of 121 (right). E2 and PVLP141 alone read the same on each side, so this test says little about the other relay neurons.
- What it measures. A simulated firing rate in one brain-only model (Shiu et al. LIF on FlyWire v783) with a looming input we set; not fly behaviour and not a real fly. Percentages are a value divided by the mean with nothing silenced.
The 9 Oct line stays, with a note. On 9 Oct the pre-registered summary was: Silencing other active neurons also changed the turn command, so this relay result is not specific to the relay neurons.
Note added 13 Oct 2026: the random control behind that line removed 2-6 times as much activity as the relays (2.3 times left, 5.8 times right); the activity-matched test above gives the reading on each side. Trials, deviations and code: report of 13 Oct 2026; the 9 Oct design: report of 9 Oct 2026.
8 new entries and 5 new ledger rows
Project claims are the projects' own; ledger numbers are the authors', scored by our fixed rules and not recomputed by us.
- FlyScore A: a wiring-specificity benchmark on MaleCNS v1.0. Sugar to MN9: real 1.0 (40 trials) vs 0.0 for 5 weight-shuffled and 5 rewired copies; ledger: helps.
- Flybrain (prove-ai) A: seven MaleCNS v1.0 projects; the grade rests on its connectome language model (bits per byte, lower is better): fly 2.6388, degree-rewired 2.6286 (15 graphs), random graph 2.5827, a parameter-matched GRU 2.5575; ledger: mixed. AUW160150/flybrain has the same commit (f42f586) and is named in the entry as a mirror; neither GitHub page says "forked from".
- FlyLab pharmacology A: predicted imidacloprid effect on a 5k-cell MaleCNS v1.0 cut, real -0.678 Hz vs rewired -0.267, weight permutation -1.102, random -0.974, sign permutation -0.379 Hz (100 graphs each); ledger: not scored, because the metric has no better or worse direction.
- MaleCNS_training A: held-out tactical accuracy on 12x12 gomoku, fly 0.787 vs rewired 0.785, RNN 0.788, GRU 0.790; ledger: no difference. We did not read its rewiring code or graph count.
- fly-connectome-study A: a pre-registered foraging test over 200 worlds, real 44.0 vs shuffled 44.36 (labelled degree-preserving), random 50.905, linear learner 46.17, floor 0.485; ledger: mixed.
- flylab-demo C: a local NeuroMechFly/FlyGym lab with a four-neuron FlyWire v783 fragment; its "no edges" run is an ablation, not a wiring null.
- discord-fly-brain C: a Discord fly agent on hand-designed weights; no wiring control.
- Roblox avatar claim U: a recap video says fruit-fly brains control Roblox avatars. The builder is unknown; we did not watch the video and found no code. It is a separate claim from fruitfly-roblox and fly-jjs-fight (verdict row).
The ledger now has 58 studies, 49 with a wiring null: helps 22, no difference 11, worse 4, mixed 10, not yet scored 2 (Does fly wiring help?).
Re-graded from code: Pokémon on a Raspberry Pi 5
The repository ianwes92/fly-brain-plays-pokemon (MIT, published 14 Oct 2026) names the Twitch stream in its README, so we graded the stream's verdict from the code: U to B, borderline C (our judgement call; a stricter reading could give C).
- Wiring and model: FlyWire FAFB v783, connections of five or more synapses, run as a whole-graph leaky integrate-and-fire network.
- Input: the game's memory (RAM), not the screen: walls, people and doors are mapped onto visual neurons (LPLC1, LC10, LPLC4).
- Output: descending-neuron rates pass through a hand-written priority arbiter that picks the key.
- Chat: chat keys are added to the fly's keys, and a paid override replaces the fly's keys for a while.
- Learning: only Kenyon-cell to MBON synapses change (chat !pain / !pleasure and code-side rewards).
- Controls: no shuffled-wiring control. We did not watch the stream.
Tracking and freshness
- Repositories: 130 checked: 123 unchanged, 6 with new commits (fly-ai, help-the-fly-escape, navis, flywire-connectome-scz, malecns-keratitis-pilot, neuropest), 1 still gone (flydoom, record kept).
- Links: 328 checked after one re-check: 284 answered, 16 redirected, 19 blocked our checker, 6 client errors, 0 server errors, 3 could not be reached. Both Zenodo paper links that timed out on 14 Oct (fly-brain by erojas, flybrain-connectome-benchmark) resolve again. fruitfly.live still has a TLS certificate error.
- Verdict rows: the repositories of 14 of the 22 verdict rows re-checked; none has new code since grading. One row is new (the Roblox avatar claim).
- Videos: 56 of 56 available on 15 Oct 2026; no video added or removed.
- Lead scan: 56 code repositories (11 new) and the weekly video searches reviewed; nothing new met the bar for a catalogue entry beyond the two follow-ups above.
What we could not resolve
- The rule's direction. Our rule compares the relays with the lowest matched control, so extra controls can only make the relays look less special, never more. So 10 controls that all stay above the relays are a narrow check: they show that this reading did not change, not why the relays lower the rate.
- Small samples. 5 seeds per side; 5 matched draws on the left and 10 on the right; the relay arms have 3 seeds each; one brain-only model with an input we set; a simulated rate, not fly behaviour.
- E2 is mostly PVLP141. PVLP141 accounts for most of the activity removed by silencing E2 on each side, so the test says little about the other relay neurons.
- Grades. Several grading calls were made from the files named above and not all were re-read line by line; Flybrain's A rests on one sub-project; the Pokémon B could be C under a stricter reading.
- Roblox claim. Who built the "fly" account is unknown; the earlier NiftRex video and the Roblox user profile are the next things to check.
- NeuroPest. Its last commit shows "n/a" in our data, and its v0.7.0 release subject was not verified.
Data behind this report: projects.json, controls.json, videos.json. The 13 Oct design and every earlier trial: report of 13 Oct 2026.