The October decision is weeks away. Here are the next timed tests.

The order below is verified from official calendars and release notices. It does not explain a prediction-market price.

1. September 24, 2026 · 08:30 ET — BEA U.S. International Transactions and Investment Position, second quarter 2026.
2. September 29, 2026 · 10:00 ET — BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August.
3. September 30, 2026 · 08:30 ET — BEA Personal Income and Outlays for August.
4. October 7, 2026 · 14:00 ET — Minutes of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
5. October 14, 2026 · 08:30 ET — BLS Consumer Price Index for September; the Beige Book is scheduled for 14:00 ET.
6. October 15, 2026 · 08:30 ET — BLS Producer Price Index for September.
7. October 27–28, 2026 — Next scheduled FOMC meeting; statement at 14:00 ET and press conference at 14:30 ET on October 28.

What is live now

Direct October event pages were rechecked September 22 at 19:05 UTC. Kalshi showed 52% for a named 25 bp hike and 48% for maintain rate. Polymarket showed 53% for a 25 bp increase and 46% for no change. Compared with 13:38 UTC, Kalshi’s named rows each rose 1 point; Polymarket’s named hike row rose 3 points and no change fell 4. The pool did not capture a quote immediately around an official release and does not claim a cause.

September is settled

On September 16, the FOMC raised the target range by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12–0 vote. That decision record is separate from the current October contracts.

September FOMC statement · Federal Reserve October calendar · BLS September calendar · BLS October calendar · BEA September 24 release notice