Research log
Each note records an answer, its source time, what could change it, and what the pool could not verify.
September 22, 2026 · 19:05 UTC
Polymarket’s October hike row moves from a tie to a 7-point lead; Kalshi is at 52%
Polymarket displayed 53% for a 25 bp increase and 46% for no change. Kalshi displayed 52% for a named 25 bp hike and 48% for maintain rate. Since 13:38 UTC, Polymarket changed from a tie to a named hike lead; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 22, 2026 · 13:38 UTC
Kalshi’s named October hike row moves back ahead; Polymarket is tied at 50%
Kalshi displayed 51% for a named 25 bp hike and 47% for maintain rate. Polymarket displayed 50% for a 25 bp increase and 50% for no change. Since the September 21 evening check, Kalshi’s named leader changed while Polymarket tied; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 21, 2026 · 19:06 UTC
Evening recheck: October’s venue split holds; Kalshi’s named hike row eases to 48%
Kalshi displayed 50% for maintain rate and 48% for a named 25 bp hike. Polymarket displayed 50% for a 25 bp increase and 49% for no change. The core venue split held from 13:38 UTC; Kalshi’s named hike row was 1 point lower, and CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 21, 2026 · 13:38 UTC
Near even in October: Kalshi names maintain rate; Polymarket names a 25 bp hike
Kalshi displayed 50% for maintain rate and 49% for a named 25 bp hike. Polymarket displayed 50% for a 25 bp increase and 49% for no change. Compared with the prior direct check, both pages moved closer to even; the venue-specific 1-point leaders differ, and CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 20, 2026 · 19:08 UTC
Kalshi reaches 56%; Polymarket’s 56% October hike row holds
Kalshi displayed 56% for a named 25 bp hike versus 45% hold; Polymarket held 56% versus 44%. Kalshi rose 1 percentage point from the 13:37 UTC check, the identified leader did not change, and CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 20, 2026 · 13:37 UTC
Kalshi’s named October hike row edges to 55%; Polymarket holds at 56%
Kalshi displayed 55% for a 25 bp hike versus 45% hold; Polymarket held 56% versus 44%. The 1-point Kalshi move did not change the identified leader, and CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 19, 2026 · 19:11 UTC
Evening check: October’s named hike rows hold; the direct CME gap remains
Kalshi remained 54% for a 25 bp hike versus 45% hold, with a separately displayed 2% Hike >25bps row. Polymarket remained 56% versus 44%. The leading rows matched the earlier check; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 19, 2026 · 13:33 UTC
October’s named hike row still leads; the venue moves split
Kalshi displayed 54% for a 25 bp hike versus 45% hold; Polymarket displayed 56% versus 44%. Kalshi’s named gap narrowed 4 points from the evening check, while Polymarket’s widened 1; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 18, 2026 · 19:06 UTC
October’s named hike lead widens on direct event pages
Kalshi displayed 56% for a 25 bp hike versus 43% hold; Polymarket displayed 55% versus 44%. Both named hike rows rose from the afternoon direct check; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 18, 2026 · 13:38 UTC
October’s 25 bp-hike row leads on two direct event pages
Kalshi displayed 52% for a 25 bp hike versus 46% hold; Polymarket displayed 53% versus 46%. Both named hike rows rose and no-change rows fell from the prior direct check; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 17, 2026 · 19:03 UTC
October event-contract odds move closer again
Kalshi displayed 52% no change and 47% for a 25 bp hike; Polymarket displayed 52% and 49%. The named gaps narrowed in a matched same-day check; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 17, 2026 · 13:34 UTC
October’s no-change lead narrows on two direct event pages
Kalshi displayed 55% hold and 45% for a 25 bp hike; Polymarket displayed 54% no change and 47% for a 25 bp increase. Those named rows narrowed materially from the first post-decision direct checks; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 16, 2026 · 19:08 UTC
The September decision is official; October event pages lean to no change
The FOMC raised the target range 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12–0 vote. Direct October event pages showed no change at 62% on Kalshi and 66% on Polymarket; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 16, 2026 · 13:39 UTC
Two direct September event pages display 88% for a 25 bp increase
Before the official statement, Kalshi and Polymarket each displayed named 88% 25 bp-increase and 12% hold/no-change rows. CME’s live grid was not directly captured.
September 15, 2026 · 19:10 UTC
Late check: Kalshi’s hike heading is 88%; the direct Polymarket record remains stale
Kalshi’s named 25 bp-hike heading was 88%. Polymarket’s direct 80%/19% renderer remained source-labelled stale, and CME’s live grid was not directly readable.
September 15, 2026 · 13:33 UTC
Kalshi’s 25 bp-hike heading is 87%; Polymarket’s current direct reading is unverified
Kalshi’s named hike heading was 87%. The last directly verified Polymarket 80% row was stale; CME remained without a directly captured live grid.
September 14, 2026 · 19:06 UTC
Kalshi’s direct 25 bp-hike heading moved to 85%; Polymarket stayed at 80%
Polymarket’s named hike row remained 80% across the pool’s afternoon and evening direct-page checks. Kalshi’s was 85%; the separate measures were not a consensus.
September 14 · September 13 · September 12 · September 11 · September 10 · September 9