Research note · September 22, 2026 · 13:38 UTC
Kalshi’s named October hike row moves back ahead; Polymarket is tied at 50%
Answer. At 13:38 UTC on September 22, the direct Kalshi October event page displayed 51% for “Hike 25bps” and 47% for “Fed maintains rate.” The direct Polymarket October contract displayed 50% for a 25 bp increase and 50% for no change. Since the pool’s September 21, 19:06 UTC direct check, Kalshi’s named hike row rose 3 percentage points and its maintain-rate row fell 3; Polymarket’s named hike row was unchanged while its no-change row rose 1 point. The pages are separate event-contract readings, not a consensus or a futures-implied estimate.
Kalshi’s named leader changed; Polymarket’s did not
Kalshi’s named leader changed from maintain rate by 2 points to a 25 bp hike by 4 points. Polymarket’s two displayed leading rows are tied. Kalshi also showed Cut 25bps below 1% and two hidden outcomes; Polymarket displayed smaller outcomes separately. The pool does not derive a full distribution from hidden or rounded rows.
A difference is not an arbitrage
Event-contract rows and a futures-implied rate calculation are different instruments. Their outcome sets, settlement rules, calculation methods, observation times, access and trading conditions can differ. A numerical difference alone does not establish a risk-free trade. This watch does not assess fees, execution, tradability or portfolio suitability.
The contract rule is evidence; the adjacent AI narrative is not
Polymarket’s rule defines its outcome using the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range from before the October meeting and names the October FOMC statement as resolution source. The page’s experimental AI-generated market narrative is excluded from this observation. The named outcome rows and written rule are the relevant surfaces.
CME remains a separate, unfilled comparison
CME FedWatch says it tracks probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its direct live October outcome grid was not readable in this check. The pool therefore does not substitute a third-party number or calculate a spread against either event contract.
Next official time
The BEA release notice schedules U.S. International Transactions and Investment Position for the second quarter of 2026 on September 24 at 08:30 ET. That is a future information time, not an explanation for today’s rows.