Fed Decision Watch

Polymarket’s October hike row moves from a tie to a 7-point lead; Kalshi shows 52%.

At 19:05 UTC on September 22, Polymarket’s direct October contract displayed 53% for a 25 bp increase and 46% for no change. Kalshi’s direct October page displayed 52% for “Hike 25bps” and 48% for “Fed maintains rate.” These are separate event-contract readings, not a shared forecast.

October event pages accessed September 22, 2026, 19:05 UTC · source time is the pool access time because neither page supplied a separate reliable quote time.

Official September result

The FOMC statement records a 25 bp increase to a 3.75%–4.00% target range, approved 12–0.

Kalshi October event contract

52% · Hike 25bps

48% · Fed maintains rate

Since 13:38 UTC: each named row is up 1 point. Cut 25bps was below 1%; two outcomes are hidden.

Polymarket October event contract

53% · 25 bp increase

46% · No change

Since 13:38 UTC: named hike +3 points; no change −4. Smaller outcomes are displayed separately and may be rounded.

CME FedWatch

No current October figure shown.

CME describes FedWatch as futures-implied; the direct live grid was unreadable in this check.

At pool access time 19:05 UTC on September 22, 2026, Kalshi displayed a 52 percent 25-basis-point-hike row and 48 percent maintain-rate row. Polymarket displayed 53 percent 25-basis-point-increase and 46 percent no-change rows. Source: direct Kalshi and Polymarket October event pages. These are separate venue-specific contract readings, not a consensus.

What changed

Polymarket’s named hike row moved from a 50%–50% tie to a 7-point lead. Kalshi’s named hike lead remained 4 points while both named rows rose. The comparison spans two pool access times, not a continuous price path, so it does not show why either venue moved.

Compare like with like before calling a gap meaningful

1. Name the instrument

Check whether the number comes from a named event contract or a futures-implied calculation. They are not interchangeable.

2. Match the outcome and time

Read the contract rule or method, exact outcome and observation time. An October row is not a year-end path.

3. Do not infer a trade

A numerical difference does not establish arbitrage. Fees, execution, access and suitability are outside this watch.

Next official dates

Sep. 24 · 08:30 ETBEA U.S. International Transactions and Investment Position for Q2.
Sep. 29 · 10:00 ETBLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August.
Sep. 30 · 08:30 ETBEA Personal Income and Outlays for August.
Oct. 7 · 14:00 ETMinutes of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
Oct. 14 · 08:30 ETBLS Consumer Price Index for September.
Oct. 28 · 14:00 ETFOMC statement; press conference at 14:30 ET.

Official records: September FOMC statement · Federal Reserve October calendar · BLS calendar · BEA September 24 release notice. Market pages: Kalshi October event · Polymarket October event and rules.