December hike rows near 70%; little change since Friday evening

October 31, 2026 · pages accessed about 13:37 UTC. The next scheduled Fed decision is December 9. Kalshi KXFEDDECISION-26DEC showed 70% for its Hike 25bps Chance heading, 30% for Fed maintains rate and 3% for Hike >25bps. Polymarket’s separate December market showed 71% for its 25 bps increase named row, 28% for No change and 2% for 50+ bps increase. A quarter-point hike remains the leading displayed outcome on both pages.

At the October 30 19:06 UTC page check, those hike displays were 69% and 70%. Each rose one percentage point between checks. This is a small displayed difference, not a timed trade or evidence of a change in the Fed’s plans. The pages do not expose a matched quote-time path, so the timing and cause are unknown.

Kalshi December 25-basis-point-hike Chance heading read 69% at the October 30 19:06 UTC check and 70% at the October 31 13:37 UTC check. Polymarket’s separate named row read 70% and 71%. Access times are not quote times. — Kalshi and Polymarket December event pages, accessed October 30–31, 2026. Separate rounded displays, with no native quote times available.

Official context and next scheduled tests

The FOMC held the target range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 by a 10–2 vote. The BLS Employment Cost Index released October 30 showed civilian-worker compensation rising 0.8% seasonally adjusted over the three months through September, after 0.9% in the preceding quarter; wages and salaries rose 0.7%. That release occurred before this check. It cannot establish why either market display changed.

BLS schedules September job openings for November 3 at 15:00 UTC, October employment for November 6 at 13:30 UTC and October CPI for November 10 at 13:30 UTC. Kalshi’s Hike 25bps contract resolves on the December decision with the Fed as verifier. Polymarket resolves on the change in the target range’s upper bound using the FOMC statement. Do not add rounded rows or average these contracts. CME FedWatch is futures-implied, not an event contract; its live December grid and quote time were unavailable in the accessible page.