December hike rows fall five points to 72%

October 30, 2026 · event pages accessed about 13:35 UTC. The next scheduled Fed decision is December 9. Kalshi KXFEDDECISION-26DEC showed 72% for its Hike 25bps Chance heading, 26% for Fed maintains rate and 3% for Hike >25bps. Polymarket’s separate December market showed 72% for its 25 bps increase named row, 25% for No change and 2% for 50+ bps increase. A quarter-point hike remains the leading displayed outcome on both pages.

Both named hike displays were 77% when accessed about 19:06 UTC October 29. The five-percentage-point declines are differences between page checks, not timed trades. The pages did not provide a matched quote-time path, so the timing and cause of the moves are unknown.

Kalshi and Polymarket separate December 25-basis-point-hike displays each read 77% at the October 29 19:06 UTC page check and 72% at the October 30 13:35 UTC check; access times are not quote times. — Kalshi and Polymarket December event pages, accessed October 29 at about 19:06 UTC and October 30 at about 13:35 UTC. Rounded, separate rows; native quote times unavailable.

Decision and next evidence

The FOMC held the target range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 by a 10–2 vote. The October 29 GDP and PCE releases were already public before the prior page check; the checks cannot attribute the later decline to either release. BLS schedules September job openings for November 3 at 15:00 UTC, October employment for November 6 at 13:30 UTC, and October CPI for November 10 at 13:30 UTC.

Kalshi says its Hike 25bps contract resolves on the December 9 decision and names the Federal Reserve as verifier. Polymarket’s December market resolves on the change in the upper bound of the target range using the FOMC statement. These are different contracts; do not add rounded rows or average the venues. CME FedWatch is futures-implied, not an event contract; its live December grid and quote time were unavailable in the accessible page. Read venue rules and executable prices before trading.