October hold still leads: Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 94%

At about 09:43 UTC on October 27, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 93% “Fed maintains rate” and 8% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate October named rows showed 94% “No change” and 6% “25 bps increase.” Both pages still show a hold as the leading outcome before the October 27–28 FOMC meeting.

Against our October 24 page check at about 19:04 UTC, Kalshi’s maintain heading is unchanged and its hike heading is 1 percentage point higher. Polymarket’s no-change row is 1 point lower and its hike row unchanged. These are differences between page accesses, not a recorded price path or an explanation.

Kalshi maintain was 93% on both October 24 and October 27 page checks; Polymarket no change was 95% then 94%. These are separate venue displays, not synchronized quotes. — Kalshi Chance headings and Polymarket named rows, accessed October 24 at about 19:04 UTC and October 27 at about 09:43 UTC. Access time is not venue quote time.

Next verified checkpoints

The Fed calendar schedules the statement for October 28 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC) and the press conference for 14:30 ET (18:30 UTC). The meeting calendar does not mark October for a Summary of Economic Projections. BLS schedules metropolitan employment and business employment dynamics for 10:00 ET (14:00 UTC) that morning. BEA schedules advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29, after the decision. Schedules may change.

How to read these displays

Kalshi Chance headings and Polymarket named rows are distinct rounded event-contract displays. They should not be averaged or treated as Fed forecasts. Kalshi’s order-entry odds differ from its Chance headings. Polymarket’s experimental AI commentary is not evidence of why its prices moved. CME FedWatch uses a futures-implied method; its direct live October grid and quote time were not readable in this check, so no CME percentage is reported.

Contract prices can change before the decision. This is public research, not personal investment advice.