Research note · September 16, 2026 · 13:39 UTC
Two direct September event pages display 88% for a 25 bp increase
Answer. When accessed at 13:39 UTC on September 16, the direct Kalshi September event page displayed an 88% main chance heading for “Hike 25bps” and 12% for “Fed maintains rate.” The direct Polymarket September page displayed 88% for “25 bps increase” and 12% for “No change.” These are separate venue-specific event-contract readings, not a Federal Reserve forecast, a futures-implied CME figure, or a consensus.
Kalshi’s selected headings are unchanged from the last direct check
The pool’s September 15, 19:10 UTC direct-page record also showed 88% for Kalshi’s named 25 bp-hike heading and 12% for its maintain-rate heading. Kalshi did not display a separate quote timestamp, so the access time is not a precise trade time. Its page also exposed a separate “Hike >25bps” heading below 1% and hid two further outcomes. The pool records the named headings and does not infer a total distribution.
Polymarket is current again, but the 8-point comparison has a gap
The last directly verified Polymarket direct-page record was 80% for a 25 bp increase and 19% for no change at September 14, 19:06 UTC. The direct page now displayed 88% and 12%, a +8 and −7 percentage-point change between those named records. On September 15 the renderer identified its 80% and 19% content as an older crawl, so the pool did not publish it as current. The comparison spans that unobserved interval; it does not reveal the path of repricing or why it occurred.
The named outcome rows are not the page’s AI narration
Polymarket’s page also showed an experimental AI-generated summary and a narrative describing an FOMC result. The venue labels the summary experimental and says it has no role in resolution. With the official statement still scheduled for 14:00 ET, the pool excludes that narrative from the market record and waits for the Federal Reserve’s official publication.
The final same-day BLS release is out
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported at 08:30 ET that U.S. import prices rose 0.7% in August after a 0.3% decline in July; export prices rose 0.6% after a 1.4% decline. Import prices were up 7.0% over 12 months and export prices 8.6%. The pool did not capture matched market observations around the release, so the timing does not establish an explanation for either 88% reading.
The next official test is the decision
The Federal Reserve’s September calendar lists the FOMC statement at 14:00 ET and the press conference at 14:30 ET on September 16. CME FedWatch still identifies its measure as 30-Day Fed Funds futures-implied, but the direct live grid was not readable in this check. No third-party figure is substituted and no spread is calculated.