Research note · September 13, 2026 · 19:07 UTC
Late check: the direct hike rows are both 79%
Answer. When accessed at 19:07 UTC on September 13, the direct Polymarket September event page displayed 79% for a 25-basis-point increase and 22% for no change. The direct Kalshi September event page displayed a 79% main chance heading for “Hike 25bps” and 21% for “Fed maintains rate.” The identical named headings are two event-contract readings, not a consensus or a CME futures-implied probability.
A one-point surface difference is not a move
Polymarket’s Economy listing showed 78% for the named hike row at 13:39 UTC. The direct event page now shows 79%, but these are different venue surfaces, not a matched series. This note therefore does not call the one-point difference an intraday price change. The direct page showed 79¢ Yes and 22¢ No alongside its 79% heading, and no separate quote timestamp; 19:07 UTC is the pool access time.
One direct row did not change
Kalshi’s 79% and 21% main chance headings matched the pool’s direct-page record at 13:39 UTC. The page also showed an 80¢ Yes quote beside the 79% hike heading, so this report keeps the visible main heading separate from a purported close or midpoint.
Rules and the missing futures comparison
Polymarket resolves this market on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range versus the level before the meeting, using the FOMC statement as its named source. CME FedWatch describes its figures as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures, but its live grid remained unreadable in this check. No current CME figure or spread is reported.
The next test is scheduled, not explained
BLS schedules August U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for September 16 at 08:30 ET. The Federal Reserve calendar lists the FOMC statement and projections at 14:00 ET, then the press conference at 14:30 ET. Those times name the next official watchpoints; they do not explain today’s prices.
Source boundary
A probability can be useful without deciding a trade, a policy outcome, or a political story. Before comparing two percentages, check whether they came from the same venue surface, contract rule, and observation window.