October hold still leads before scheduled weekly earnings
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 13:36 UTC on October 21, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 89% “Fed maintains rate” and 12% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 88% “No change” and 12% “25 bps increase.” Hold remains the leading named outcome on both pages for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting.
Change since October 20 at 19:07 UTC
| Named display | Oct 20 · 19:07 UTC | Oct 21 · 13:36 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · maintains rate | 88% | 89% | +1 percentage point |
| Kalshi · hike 25 bp | 12% | 12% | unchanged |
| Polymarket · no change | 86% | 88% | +2 percentage points |
| Polymarket · 25 bp increase | 14% | 12% | −2 percentage points |
What the timing does not show
The BLS October calendar scheduled usual weekly earnings for 10:00 ET (14:00 UTC) on October 21, after these page checks. This release cannot explain an increase already observed by 13:36 UTC. The two checks do not show when prices changed or what caused the changes.
Kalshi’s Chance headings differ from order-entry odds. Polymarket’s experimental AI narrative is not evidence of a price cause. The named displays are rounded and separate; do not add or average them. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable in this access.
The Fed calendar lists the October 28 statement at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC) and press conference at 14:30 ET (18:30 UTC). Event-contract prices are not Fed forecasts or personal investment advice.