October hold leads before the Fed decision

At about 13:35 UTC on October 28, 2026, the accessible Kalshi October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 94% “Fed maintains rate” and 6% “Hike 25bps.” The separate Polymarket October event named rows showed 93% “No change” and 7% “25 bps increase.” Both displays favor a hold.

Compared with the October 27 evening page checks, Kalshi’s maintain heading was unchanged; Polymarket’s no-change named row was two percentage points lower. Polymarket’s compact summary showed 93.2% no change, while its named row showed 93%. This note compares named rows consistently. Page access is not venue quote time, and the pages are not synchronized. The checks cannot locate the move within the interval or explain it.

Kalshi maintain Chance heading: 94% on October 27 evening and October 28 midday. Polymarket no-change named row: 95% then 93%. Separate page observations, not synchronized quotes. — Kalshi Chance headings and Polymarket named rows, accessed October 27 and 28, 2026. Access times are not quote times.

The Federal Reserve calendar schedules the policy statement for 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC) and the press conference for 14:30 ET (18:30 UTC) on October 28. The FOMC meeting calendar does not mark October for a Summary of Economic Projections; December 8–9 is the next projections meeting. BEA schedules advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29 at 08:30 ET.

CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure. Its accessible page did not expose the live October grid or quote time, so no CME number appears here. Event-contract displays are not Fed forecasts or personal investment advice.