October hold readings stay at 87% in a new page check
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 01:36 UTC on October 18, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 87% “Fed maintains rate” and 13% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate October named rows showed 87% “No change” and 14% “25 bps increase.” Both favored a hold at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting.
What changed from the October 17 check?
| Named measure | Oct 17 · 22:32 UTC | Oct 18 · 01:36 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · maintains rate | 87% | 87% | 0 points |
| Kalshi · hike 25 bp | 14% | 13% | −1 percentage point |
| Polymarket · no change | 87% | 87% | 0 points |
| Polymarket · 25 bp increase | 14% | 14% | 0 points |
What the checks cannot establish
Page access is not a venue quote timestamp. The small change in Kalshi’s hike heading does not identify a cause, and the large hold increase recorded between October 15 and 17 still has no verified price path. Kalshi’s order-entry odds are a different display. Polymarket’s separately rounded 87% and 14% rows total 101%; do not add or normalize them. Its experimental AI market summary is not evidence for a cause.
CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were not readable here. The BLS calendar lists a state employment release on October 20 at 10:00 ET (14:00 UTC). The BEA calendar places September personal income and outlays on October 29, after the meeting. The Fed events calendar lists the October 28 statement at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC) and press conference at 14:30 ET (18:30 UTC). These are scheduled checkpoints, not forecasts or explanations for contract prices.
Event-contract prices are not Federal Reserve forecasts or personal investment advice.