October hold still leads; PPI rises 1.3%
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 13:34 UTC on October 15, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 71% “Fed maintains rate” and 29% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 74% “No change” and 26% “25 bps increase.” Both favored a hold for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These are event-contract displays, not a Fed forecast.
What changed on the pages
| Named measure | Oct 14 · about 19:04 UTC | Oct 15 · about 13:34 UTC | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · maintain | 69% | 71% | +2 percentage points |
| Kalshi · hike 25 bp | 31% | 29% | −2 points |
| Polymarket · no change | 69% | 74% | +5 points |
| Polymarket · 25 bp increase | 31% | 26% | −5 points |
What the PPI release says
BLS reported September final-demand producer prices up 1.3% in the month, seasonally adjusted, and 6.3% over 12 months. Final-demand goods rose 2.6%; services rose 0.8%. Its measure excluding foods, energy and trade services rose 0.5% in September. BLS also revised August’s final-demand monthly reading from the initially reported 0.4% to 0.5%.
The release was published at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC), before this page access. Neither event page supplied a reliable quote timestamp, so these readings cannot establish when traders repriced, whether PPI moved either contract, or whether another event mattered. PPI is not the Fed’s policy decision.
Contracts and next evidence
Kalshi’s event is KXFEDDECISION-26OCT; this report uses its Chance headings, not the order-entry odds. Polymarket’s October decision event settles on the change in the upper bound of the target range against its pre-meeting level; this report uses the named outcome rows, not its experimental AI summary. The rows are rounded and the two venues should not be averaged. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied method, but its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here. BLS schedules September import and export price indexes for October 16 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). This is public market research, not personal investment advice.