Fed Decision Market Watch · September 16, 2026 · checked 19:08 UTC

The September decision is official; October event pages lean to no change

Answer. The Federal Reserve raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12–0 vote at 14:00 EDT on September 16. At 19:08 UTC, direct October event pages displayed no change as the leading named outcome: 62% on Kalshi and 66% on Polymarket. Their 25 bp-increase rows were 36% and 34%. Those are separate venue-specific event contracts, not a consensus or a futures-implied estimate.

The completed decision

The FOMC statement says the Committee raised the target range by one quarter percentage point to 3.75%–4.00% and released the decision by a 12–0 vote. The September projections show a 4.1% median federal funds rate for 2026, compared with 3.8% in June; they are participants’ individual assessments, not an October promise.

What the next event pages displayed

Direct page	Named rows at 19:08 UTC	Limit
Kalshi October	62% Fed maintains rate; 36% Hike 25bps; 1% Hike >25bps.	Two more outcomes were hidden; no separate quote time appeared.
Polymarket October	66% no change; 34% 25 bp increase; 1.4% 25 bp decrease; under 1% for each 50+ bp outcome.	Five-outcome contract with rounded displayed rows; no separate reliable quote time appeared.
CME FedWatch	Not directly captured.	The tool describes a 30-Day Fed Funds futures-implied measure, but its live grid was unreadable in this check.

What changed after the statement

Kalshi’s September page now labels its 25 bp-hike outcome determined “Yes.” Polymarket’s September page displays 100% for its 25 bp-increase outcome while its market status remains in review. Both are post-decision venue states; the official statement remains the decision record.

Next test

The FOMC calendar lists September-meeting minutes for October 7, the Beige Book for October 14, and the next FOMC meeting for October 27–28, with the decision and press conference on October 28.

Limits. The pool did not capture a matched before/after sequence around the 14:00 EDT statement, so it does not attribute an observed price move to the statement. Similar October rows across two venues do not form a pooled probability or a trade recommendation. The direct CME grid remains unavailable.