Fed Decision Market Watch · September 17, 2026 · checked 13:34 UTC

October’s no-change lead narrows on two direct event pages

Answer. At 13:34 UTC, direct October event pages still placed no change first, but the named gap had narrowed since the first post-decision check. Kalshi displayed 55% for “Fed maintains rate” and 45% for “Hike 25bps,” from 62% and 36% at 19:08 UTC on September 16. Polymarket displayed 54% for no change and 47% for a 25 bp increase, from 66% and 34%. These are separate venue-specific event contracts, not a consensus or a futures-implied estimate.

Like-for-like changes on the same pages

Direct page	September 16, 19:08 UTC	September 17, 13:34 UTC	Named-row change
Kalshi October	62% maintain rate; 36% Hike 25bps	55% maintain rate; 45% Hike 25bps	Maintain rate −7 percentage points; Hike 25bps +9 points
Polymarket October	66% no change; 34% 25 bp increase	54% no change; 47% 25 bp increase	No change −12 percentage points; 25 bp increase +13 points

Each comparison uses the same named direct page at two pool access times. The values were not taken from a cross-venue aggregator. No separate reliable quote time appeared on either page, so the table records access time.

What the current pages show

Kalshi also displayed 2% for “Hike >25bps” and hid two further outcomes. Polymarket displayed smaller rounded outcome rows beside the two leading rows. The pool does not add them, infer residuals, or portray either page as a complete distribution.

What did not become comparable

CME FedWatch describes its tool as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices. Its live October grid remained unreadable in this check. The pool therefore does not insert a third-party CME figure or calculate a spread against the two event contracts.

Next official test

The FOMC calendar lists the next regular meeting for October 27–28. The official statement will settle the policy decision, but it will not by itself explain every intervening market-price change.

Limits. The recorded changes do not identify an economic trigger, trader composition, or an implication for stocks, bonds, or a personal portfolio. A venue price is an observed contract row, not a census of investors. The official September decision remains a separate record: the FOMC raised the target range by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12–0 vote.