October hold leads at 89% on Kalshi and 91% on Polymarket

Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1

Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

At about 13:34 UTC on October 22, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 89% “Fed maintains rate” and 10% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 91% “No change” and 9% “25 bps increase.” Hold leads on both pages for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These are different contracts, not a combined probability.

Change since the October 21 evening check

Named display	Oct 21, 19:05 UTC	Oct 22, 13:34 UTC	Change
Kalshi · maintains rate Chance heading	88%	89%	+1 percentage point
Kalshi · hike 25 bp Chance heading	13%	10%	−3 percentage points
Polymarket · no change named row	87%	91%	+4 percentage points
Polymarket · 25 bp increase named row	13%	9%	−4 percentage points

Kalshi maintain-rate Chance heading rose from 88% to 89%; Polymarket no-change named row rose from 87% to 91%, between page checks on October 21 at 19:05 UTC and October 22 at 13:34 UTC, 2026. — Direct Kalshi Chance headings and Polymarket named rows; page checks October 21 at 19:05 UTC and October 22 at 13:34 UTC. Access time is not quote time.

Official release between checks

Department of Labor weekly claims, released October 22 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC), reported 194,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for the week ended October 17, down 6,000 from a revised 200,000. Insured unemployment rose 25,000 to 1,728,000 for the week ended October 10. These advance figures may be revised. The release was between page checks; the snapshots do not show when prices moved or what caused them.

How to read this

The venue pages do not give reliable quote times for these displayed percentages. Kalshi’s Chance headings differ from its order-entry odds. Polymarket’s named rows differed from its own experimental AI text and an unsynchronized tracker, so this report uses the directly observed rows only. Do not add or average the rounded outcomes. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied method; its live October grid and quote time were not readable in this check. These prices are not Fed forecasts or personal investment advice.