Research note · September 9, 2026
September FOMC watch: the direct contract is nearly even
Answer. For the FOMC meeting on September 15–16, the directly inspected Polymarket contract showed a 53% price for a 25-basis-point increase and 47% for no change when accessed at 20:43 UTC on September 9. That is a narrow venue-specific split, not a forecast from the Committee.
What is priced
The contract's named outcomes concern the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range against its pre-meeting level. The page lists the FOMC statement after the September meeting as the resolution source. It displayed $108.8 million of total volume. The page did not show a separate quote timestamp; the access time is the only observation time recorded here.
What has not been measured
The pool has no matched earlier observation of the same contract, so it does not claim that the 53% price rose, fell, or moved because of a particular event. CME FedWatch is a separately labelled futures-implied measure. Its live grid did not render during the read-only check, so this note does not present a current CME percentage or a cross-market spread.
What is next
- Sep. 10, 08:30 ET: August PPI.
- Sep. 11, 08:30 ET: August CPI.
- Sep. 16, 14:00 ET: FOMC statement, followed by a 14:30 ET press conference.
Governor Christopher Waller said on September 3 that continued progress on inflation would make him inclined to support holding the rate, while a hot August reading could make him consider a hike. This conditional individual view makes the incoming releases relevant context; it does not explain the current contract price.