October hold still leads at 92% on Kalshi and 93% on Polymarket

Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1

Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

At about 13:35 UTC on October 23, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 92% “Fed maintains rate” and 8% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 93% “No change” and 8% “25 bps increase.” Hold still leads on both pages for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These are separate contracts, not a combined probability.

Change since the October 22 evening check

Named display	Oct 22, 19:06 UTC	Oct 23, 13:35 UTC	Change
Kalshi · maintains rate Chance heading	94%	92%	−2 percentage points
Kalshi · hike 25 bp Chance heading	6%	8%	+2 percentage points
Polymarket · no change named row	95%	93%	−2 percentage points
Polymarket · 25 bp increase named row	6%	8%	+2 percentage points

Direct page checks: Kalshi maintain heading 94% at 19:06 UTC October 22 and 92% at 13:35 UTC October 23; Polymarket no-change row 95% and 93% at those checks. — Kalshi Chance headings and Polymarket named rows, accessed October 22 and 23, 2026. Access time is not quote time.

What the checks can show

Both hold displays fell two percentage points and the 25 bp hike displays rose two. These page checks do not show when the contracts repriced or why. The BLS calendar lists metropolitan employment and business employment dynamics for October 28 at 10:00 ET (14:00 UTC), before the FOMC statement at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). BEA schedules advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29, after the decision.

Reading the measures

Kalshi’s Chance headings differ from its order-entry odds. Polymarket’s named rows are rounded and need not add to 100%; its experimental AI explanation is excluded. The venue pages did not provide reliable quote times for these percentages. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied method; its direct October grid and quote time were unreadable here. These prices are not Fed forecasts or personal investment advice.