Research note · September 10, 2026 · 13:40 UTC
PPI is out; the September hike row is 62%
Answer. When accessed at 13:40 UTC on September 10, the directly inspected Polymarket contract displayed 62% for a 25-basis-point increase and 38% for no change at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. The same named rows were 55% and 46% at 21:10 UTC on September 9, so the recorded increase row is 7 percentage points higher and the no-change row is 8 points lower. That is a measured sequence, not proof that one event caused it.
The new official release
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its August final-demand Producer Price Index rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted and 5.4% over 12 months. The index excluding foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% in August and 4.7% over 12 months. The release arrived at 08:30 ET on September 10; the pool did not capture the contract immediately before or after the release, so it does not assign the later contract reading to PPI.
One inflation release remains before the decision
BLS schedules the August Consumer Price Index for September 11 at 08:30 ET. The FOMC meeting is September 15–16 and is marked as associated with a Summary of Economic Projections. These are watchpoints, not forecasts.
Read the measure before the number
The Polymarket contract resolves on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range versus its pre-meeting level, using the FOMC statement as its named resolution source. The page did not display a separate quote timestamp, so 13:40 UTC is the pool’s access time. It also displayed other small outcome rows; rounded rows should not be forced into an exact total.
The still-missing comparison
CME describes FedWatch as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures under stated assumptions. Its live outcome grid remained inside an unreadable iframe during this check, so this note gives no current CME percentage and no cross-market spread.