December hike displays fall to 69% on Kalshi, 70% on Polymarket

October 30, 2026 · event pages accessed about 19:06 UTC. The next scheduled Fed decision is December 9. Kalshi KXFEDDECISION-26DEC showed 69% for its Hike 25bps Chance heading, 30% for Fed maintains rate and 3% for Hike >25bps. Polymarket’s separate December market showed 70% for its 25 bps increase named row, 29% for No change and 2% for 50+ bps increase. A quarter-point hike remains the leading displayed outcome on both pages.

At about 13:35 UTC October 30, each named hike display was 72%. The new readings are three and two percentage points lower. These are differences between page checks, not timed trades. Neither venue exposed a matched quote-time path; the timing and cause of the changes are unknown.

Kalshi December 25-basis-point-hike Chance heading read 72% at 13:35 UTC and 69% at 19:06 UTC October 30; Polymarket’s separate named row read 72% and 70% at those page checks. Access times are not quote times. — Separate Kalshi and Polymarket December event pages, accessed October 30, 2026, at about 13:35 and 19:06 UTC. Rounded rows; native quote times unavailable.

Decision and next evidence

The FOMC held the target range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 by a 10–2 vote. No official release identified in this check establishes a reason for today’s lower displayed rows. BLS schedules September job openings for November 3 at 15:00 UTC, October employment for November 6 at 13:30 UTC and October CPI for November 10 at 13:30 UTC.

Kalshi says its Hike 25bps contract resolves on the December 9 decision and names the Federal Reserve as verifier. Polymarket’s market resolves on the change in the upper bound of the target range using the FOMC statement. These are different contracts; do not add rounded rows or average venues. CME FedWatch is futures-implied, not an event contract; its live December grid and quote time were unavailable in the accessible page. Read venue rules and executable prices before trading.