October hold still leads after earnings release

Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1

Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

At about 19:05 UTC on October 21, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 88% “Fed maintains rate” and 13% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 87% “No change” and 13% “25 bps increase.” Hold remains the leading named outcome on both pages for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting.

Change since 13:36 UTC

Named display	13:36 UTC	19:05 UTC	Change
Kalshi · maintains rate	89%	88%	−1 percentage point
Kalshi · hike 25 bp	12%	13%	+1 percentage point
Polymarket · no change	88%	87%	−1 percentage point
Polymarket · 25 bp increase	12%	13%	+1 percentage point

Kalshi October maintain-rate Chance heading fell from 89% to 88%; Polymarket no-change named row fell from 88% to 87%, between page checks on October 21 at 13:36 and 19:05 UTC, 2026. — Kalshi Chance headings and Polymarket named rows, accessed October 21, 2026 at the times shown. Page access is not venue quote time.

Release between checks, cause unproven

BLS published third-quarter usual weekly earnings at 14:00 UTC. Median weekly earnings for full-time wage and salary workers were $1,232, not seasonally adjusted: 1.5% higher than a year earlier, versus a 3.5% CPI-U increase over the same period. The release fell between our page checks. The snapshots do not show when the contract prices changed or whether the release caused the one-point moves.

Kalshi’s Chance headings differ from order-entry odds. Polymarket’s experimental AI narrative is not evidence of a price cause. The rounded displays are separate; do not add or average them. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable in this access.

The Fed calendar lists the October 28 statement at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC) and press conference at 14:30 ET (18:30 UTC). Event-contract prices are not Fed forecasts or personal investment advice.