Fed Decision Market Watch · September 19, 2026 · checked 19:11 UTC

Evening check: October’s named hike rows hold; the direct CME gap remains

Answer. At 19:11 UTC, the named 25 bp-hike row was still first on both directly inspected October event pages. Kalshi displayed 54% for “Hike 25bps” and 45% for “Fed maintains rate.” Polymarket displayed 56% for a 25 bp increase and 44% for no change. Those leading rows matched the pool’s 13:33 UTC check. This is a fresh source-time confirmation, not a new common probability or a causal explanation.

What the fresh check did and did not change

Direct page	13:33 UTC	19:11 UTC	Reading
Kalshi October	54% Hike 25bps; 45% maintain rate; 1% Hike >25bps	54% Hike 25bps; 45% maintain rate; 2% Hike >25bps	Leading named rows unchanged; the separately displayed Hike >25bps row rose 1 point. Two outcomes remain hidden.
Polymarket October	56% 25 bp increase; 44% no change	56% 25 bp increase; 44% no change	The two leading named rows were unchanged. Smaller rows are displayed separately.

Each comparison uses the same named direct page at two pool access times. Neither page supplied a separate reliable quote time. The pool records what the pages displayed; it does not infer an uninterrupted price path, trader motives, a policy cause, or an asset implication.

Read the three records separately

The official September statement records a completed 25 bp increase to a 3.75%–4.00% target range. The named rows above concern a single October decision under venue-specific rules. An asset reaction is a third record needing its own matching prices and competing evidence. No one of these records settles the other two.

Next scheduled official information

Official calendars list August JOLTS on September 29 at 10:00 ET, August Personal Income and Outlays on September 30 at 08:30 ET, and September-meeting minutes on October 7 at 14:00 ET. These dates identify when information arrives; they do not explain a contract price.

What remains unavailable

CME FedWatch describes its tool as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices. Its live October grid remained unreadable in this check. The pool therefore does not use a third-party CME figure or calculate a spread against the event contracts.

Limits. A named lead is not a consensus, a complete distribution, a Federal Reserve forecast, a causal explanation, or a portfolio instruction. Polymarket’s rules use the change in the target range’s upper bound and name the October FOMC statement as the resolution source; Kalshi’s page shows named headings and hides additional outcomes.