Research note · September 14, 2026 · 13:34 UTC
Direct hike rows rose to 80% on Polymarket and 83% on Kalshi
Answer. When accessed at 13:34 UTC on September 14, the direct Polymarket September event page displayed 80% for a 25-basis-point increase and 19% for no change. The direct Kalshi September event page displayed an 83% main chance heading for “Hike 25bps” and 18% for “Fed maintains rate.” These are two venue-specific event-contract readings, not a Federal Reserve forecast, a consensus, or a CME futures-implied figure.
There are measured changes, but only within each direct page
The pool’s previous direct Polymarket record, accessed at 19:07 UTC on September 13, showed 79% for the named 25 bp increase and 22% for no change. Today’s direct-page rows are therefore +1 and −3 percentage points. The prior direct Kalshi record showed 79% and 21% for its named hike and maintain-rate headings; today’s figures are +4 and −3 points. Neither page displayed a separate quote timestamp, so these are comparisons between the pool’s recorded page accesses.
Do not turn the 80% and 83% into a third number
The two pages use separate event-contract series. Polymarket’s detailed page also displayed less than 1% for a 50+ bp decrease, less than 1% for a 25 bp decrease, and 1% for a 50+ bp increase; its rounded outcome rows are not an exact distribution. Kalshi’s renderer showed a 1% “Hike >25bps” row and a “2 more” control, so no unshown value or residual is calculated. A difference across venues is not a spread to trade or an explanation of policy.
Rules and the missing futures comparison
Polymarket resolves its September market on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range versus the level before the meeting, using the FOMC statement as its named source. CME FedWatch describes its figures as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures, but its live grid remained unreadable in this check. No current CME figure or cross-market spread is reported.
The next test is scheduled, not explained
BLS schedules August U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for September 16 at 08:30 ET. The Federal Reserve calendar lists the FOMC statement and projections at 14:00 ET, then the press conference at 14:30 ET. Those are the next official watchpoints; today’s measured changes do not establish why either event-market row moved.
What this reading does not answer
It does not decide a portfolio action, prove a policy outcome, or settle an oil, bond, political, or equity-market narrative. It gives a time-stamped reading of two identified contracts and the next official time when the answer may become testable.