Fed Decision Market Watch · September 19, 2026 · checked 13:33 UTC

October’s named hike row still leads; the venue moves split

Answer. At 13:33 UTC, the named 25 bp-hike row was first on both direct October pages. Kalshi displayed 54% for “Hike 25bps” and 45% for “Fed maintains rate.” Polymarket displayed 56% for a 25 bp increase and 44% for no change. Since the September 18, 19:06 UTC direct check, Kalshi’s named hike row fell 2 percentage points while Polymarket’s rose 1. These are separate venue-specific event contracts, not a consensus or a futures-implied estimate.

Like-for-like checks on the same pages

Direct page	Sep. 18 · 19:06 UTC	Sep. 19 · 13:33 UTC	Named-row change
Kalshi October	56% Hike 25bps; 43% maintain rate	54% Hike 25bps; 45% maintain rate	Hike −2 percentage points; maintain +2
Polymarket October	55% 25 bp increase; 44% no change	56% 25 bp increase; 44% no change	25 bp increase +1 percentage point; no change unchanged

Each comparison uses the same named direct page at two pool access times. Neither page supplied a separate reliable quote time, so the table records access time. The moves are observed; no price sequence around a release was captured, and no cause is assigned.

Three questions, three different records

The official September statement records what the FOMC did. The named rows above cover a single October decision under venue-specific rules. A stock, bond, commodity, or crypto move is a third object that needs its own matched evidence. One record cannot settle the other two.

What remains outside the headline

Kalshi also displayed 1% for “Hike >25bps” and hid two further outcomes. Polymarket displayed smaller rounded rows beside the two leading rows. The pool does not add them, infer residuals, or portray either page as a complete distribution.

Next official testable dates

Official calendars list August JOLTS on September 29 at 10:00 ET, August Personal Income and Outlays on September 30 at 08:30 ET, and September-meeting minutes on October 7 at 14:00 ET. These dates tell readers when new official information arrives; they do not explain the observed contract movement.

What did not become comparable

CME FedWatch describes its tool as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices. Its live October grid remained unreadable in this check. The pool therefore does not insert a third-party CME figure or calculate a spread against the two event contracts.

Limits. A named lead is not a trader census, an inevitable policy result, a causal story, or a portfolio instruction. The official September decision remains a separate record: the FOMC raised the target range by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12–0 vote.