Research note · September 11, 2026 · 13:34 UTC

CPI is out; the September hike row is 81%

Answer. When accessed at 13:34 UTC on September 11, the directly inspected Polymarket contract displayed 81% for a 25-basis-point increase and 20% for no change at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. The same named rows were 63% and 37% at 19:08 UTC on September 10, so the recorded changes are +18 and −17 percentage points. That is a measured repricing between two snapshots, not proof that one event caused it.

The new official release

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released August CPI at 08:30 ET on September 11. CPI-U rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in August and 3.4% over 12 months. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in August and 2.4% over 12 months. The pool did not capture the contract immediately before or after the release, so it does not assign the later contract reading to CPI.

Read the price rule before the number

The contract resolves on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range versus its pre-meeting level, using the FOMC statement as its named resolution source. Its page did not display a separate quote timestamp, so 13:34 UTC is the pool’s access time. The page also showed small 50+ bp-increase and decrease rows; rounded displayed rows are not an exact 100% distribution.

The comparison still missing

CME FedWatch describes its figures as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its live grid is embedded; a direct attempt to open it returned an access-denied error. This note therefore gives no current CME percentage and no cross-market spread.

What can change the answer next

The FOMC meets September 15–16, a meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections. The next authoritative outcome is the Committee’s statement, not this contract price.