October hold still leads: Kalshi 91%, Polymarket 92%
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:03 UTC on October 23, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 91% “Fed maintains rate” and 8% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 92% “No change” and 8% “25 bps increase.” Hold remains the leading displayed outcome for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. The readings are not a combined probability.
Change since the midday check
| Named display | Oct 23, 13:35 UTC | Oct 23, 19:03 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · maintains rate Chance heading | 92% | 91% | −1 percentage point |
| Kalshi · hike 25 bp Chance heading | 8% | 8% | unchanged |
| Polymarket · no change named row | 93% | 92% | −1 percentage point |
| Polymarket · 25 bp increase named row | 8% | 8% | unchanged |
Next official checkpoints
The Fed’s 2026 FOMC calendar does not schedule a Summary of Economic Projections for October; the next marked projections meeting is December 8–9. The October statement is scheduled for October 28 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC), followed by a press conference at 14:30 ET (18:30 UTC). BLS lists metropolitan employment and business employment dynamics at 10:00 ET (14:00 UTC) that day. BEA schedules advance GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29, after the decision.
What the checks cannot show
Both hold displays are one percentage point below the midday page checks; the 25 bp-hike displays are unchanged. The venue pages did not provide reliable quote times for these percentages, so the checks do not establish when or why a row moved. Kalshi’s Chance heading differs from its order-entry odds. Polymarket’s named rows are rounded and its experimental AI explanation is excluded. CME FedWatch uses fed funds futures rather than event contracts; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here. Contract prices are not Fed forecasts or personal investment advice.