Research note · September 22, 2026 · 19:05 UTC
Polymarket’s October hike row moves from a tie to a 7-point lead; Kalshi is at 52%
Answer. At 19:05 UTC on September 22, the direct Polymarket October contract displayed 53% for a 25 bp increase and 46% for no change. The direct Kalshi October event page displayed 52% for “Hike 25bps” and 48% for “Fed maintains rate.” Since the pool’s 13:38 UTC direct check, Polymarket’s named hike row rose 3 percentage points and no change fell 4; Kalshi’s two named rows each rose 1 point. The pages are separate event-contract readings, not a consensus or a futures-implied estimate.
Polymarket changed from a tie to a named hike lead
At 13:38 UTC, Polymarket’s named hike and no-change rows were both 50%. At 19:05 UTC, the page showed a 7-point hike lead. Kalshi’s named 25 bp-hike lead was 4 points at both checks. Kalshi also showed Cut 25bps below 1% and two hidden outcomes; Polymarket displayed smaller outcomes separately. The pool does not derive a full distribution from hidden or rounded rows.
The observation gap does not explain the move
The checks are two pool access times, not a continuous price record. The pool did not capture a price immediately around an official release and does not know who traded or why. The movement is a direct reading of named rows, not proof of a policy view, an asset outcome or a cause.
A difference is not an arbitrage
Event-contract rows and a futures-implied rate calculation are different instruments. Their outcome sets, settlement rules, calculation methods, observation times, access and trading conditions can differ. A numerical difference alone does not establish a risk-free trade. This watch does not assess fees, execution, tradability or portfolio suitability.
CME remains a separate, unfilled comparison
CME FedWatch says it tracks probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its direct live October outcome grid was not readable in this check. The pool therefore does not substitute a third-party number or calculate a spread against either event contract.
Next official time
The BEA release notice schedules U.S. International Transactions and Investment Position for the second quarter of 2026 on September 24 at 08:30 ET. That is a future information time, not an explanation for today’s rows.