October hold still leads in evening page checks
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:05 UTC on October 15, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 72% “Fed maintains rate” and 28% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 73% “No change” and 28% “25 bps increase.” Both favored a hold at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These are event-contract displays, not a Fed forecast.
Since the earlier page check
| Named measure | Oct 15 · about 13:34 UTC | Oct 15 · about 19:05 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · maintains rate | 71% | 72% | +1 percentage point |
| Kalshi · hike 25 bp | 29% | 28% | −1 point |
| Polymarket · no change | 74% | 73% | −1 point |
| Polymarket · 25 bp increase | 26% | 28% | +2 points |
What this does not show
BLS September PPI rose 1.3% in the month and 6.3% over 12 months. Its 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC) release preceded both page checks, but neither venue exposed a reliable quote timestamp. The checks do not show whether PPI moved the contracts or when traders changed prices. The small evening moves left the leading outcome unchanged.
Kalshi’s event is KXFEDDECISION-26OCT; this report uses Chance headings, not order-entry odds. Polymarket’s October event settles on the change in the target range’s upper bound against its pre-meeting level; this report uses named outcome rows, not its experimental AI summary. Its displayed 73% and 28% rows total 101% because separately rounded contract displays are not a normalized probability distribution. Do not add or average the venue rows. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time remained unreadable here.
Next official release: BLS schedules September import and export price indexes for October 16 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). This is public market research, not personal investment advice.