Research note · September 9, 2026 · 21:10 UTC

September FOMC update: the hike price rose to 55%

Answer. For the September 15–16 FOMC decision, the Polymarket contract displayed a 55% price for a 25-basis-point increase and 46% for no change when accessed at 21:10 UTC. The same contract read 53% and 47% at 20:43 UTC, so the increase row rose 2 percentage points and the no-change row fell 1 point over 27 minutes. That is an observed sequence, not a cause.

Read the exact contract

The venue defines the event by the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range versus the level before the meeting. Its named resolution source is the FOMC statement. Other listed outcome rows were below 1%. The page does not show a separate quote timestamp, and its rounded displayed rows are not an exact 100% total. This is a venue price, not a Fed forecast or a CME estimate.

The next test is still inflation

September 10, 08:30 ET: BLS Producer Price Index for August.
September 11, 08:30 ET: BLS Consumer Price Index for August.
September 16, 14:00 ET: FOMC statement, followed by a 14:30 ET press conference.

Context, not an explanation

The Federal Reserve’s August Beige Book said activity increased modestly since early July and prices increased moderately. It summarizes contacts collected on or before August 24 and is not commentary on officials’ views. The pool has not observed a price move that can be attributed to it.

The missing comparison

CME says FedWatch reflects 30-Day Fed Funds futures under stated assumptions. Its current outcome grid remains inside an iframe that the read-only renderer cannot inspect, so the pool still does not publish a current CME percentage or a cross-market spread.

Source boundary

The Polymarket page also contains experimental AI-generated commentary. This update uses only the displayed contract rows and resolution rules, not that commentary, as evidence for the current reading.