Research note · September 10, 2026 · 19:08 UTC
Late check: the hike row is 63%; CPI is next
Answer. When accessed at 19:08 UTC on September 10, the directly inspected Polymarket contract displayed 63% for a 25-basis-point increase and 37% for no change at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. The same named rows were 62% and 38% at 13:40 UTC, so the increase row was 1 percentage point higher and the no-change row 1 point lower over 5 hours 28 minutes. That is a small observed change, not proof that any event caused it.
All displayed outcome rows
At the same access time, the page showed 1% for a 50+ bp increase and less than 1% each for a 25 bp decrease and a 50+ bp decrease. These are rounded displayed rows; the pool does not turn them into an exact total or calculate a residual outcome.
The next official test
BLS released August PPI at 08:30 ET on September 10: final demand rose 0.4% in the month and 5.4% over 12 months. BLS schedules August CPI for September 11 at 08:30 ET, before the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. The pool did not capture a contract quote immediately around PPI, so it does not attribute the later prices to that release.
Read the measure before the number
The Polymarket contract resolves on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range versus its pre-meeting level, using the FOMC statement as its named resolution source. The page did not display a separate quote timestamp, so 19:08 UTC is the pool’s access time. Its experimental AI-generated market commentary is not used as evidence here.
The still-missing comparison
CME describes FedWatch as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its overview page exposes the live grid in an iframe; a direct attempt to open that embedded tool returned an access-denied error. This note therefore gives no current CME percentage and no cross-market spread.