Research note · September 11, 2026 · 19:06 UTC

Late check: the hike row is 82%; the move is small

Answer. When accessed at 19:06 UTC on September 11, the directly inspected Polymarket contract displayed 82% for a 25-basis-point increase and 18% for no change at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. At 13:34 UTC the same day, the named rows were 81% and 20%, so the changes are +1 and −2 percentage points. That is a small update to rounded displayed rows, not a new large-repricing claim.

The larger move is still not an explanation

At 19:08 UTC on September 10, the same named rows were 63% and 37%. The 24-hour matched changes are therefore +19 and −19 percentage points. BLS released August CPI at 08:30 ET during that period, but the pool did not capture a contract quote immediately before or after that release. The recorded sequence does not establish why the price moved.

Read the price rule before the number

The contract resolves on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range versus its pre-meeting level, using the FOMC statement as its named resolution source. Its page did not display a separate quote timestamp, so 19:06 UTC is the pool’s access time. It also showed small 50+ bp-increase and decrease rows; rounded displayed rows are not an exact 100% distribution.

The comparison still missing

CME FedWatch describes its figures as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its live grid was not directly readable in this environment. A Vantage Markets article reproduced a dated September 10 CME table, but that third-party historical report is not a current direct CME observation. This note gives no current CME percentage and no cross-market spread.

What can change the answer next

The FOMC meets September 15–16, a meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections. The next authoritative outcome is the Committee’s statement, not this contract price.