Research note · September 12, 2026 · 19:09 UTC

Late check: the hike row is 80%; the update is small

Answer. When accessed at 19:09 UTC on September 12, Polymarket’s public Economy listing displayed 80% for a 25-basis-point increase and 21% for no change in the named “Fed Decision in September?” market. The pool’s 13:34 UTC contract-page snapshot was 79% and 20%, so the named displayed rows were each 1 percentage point higher. That is a small update across two views of the same market, not a material repricing claim.

Read the surface and rule before the percentage

The listing card did not show a separate quote timestamp, so 19:09 UTC is the pool’s access time. Its named rows are rounded and total 101%, not an exact distribution. The underlying contract resolves on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range versus its pre-meeting level, using the FOMC statement as its named resolution source. The direct contract endpoint’s explanatory content did not provide a consistent fresh quote in this check, so this note uses the named market card and identifies it as such.

Decision-day sequence

BLS schedules the August U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for September 16 at 08:30 ET. The Federal Reserve calendar lists the FOMC statement and projections at 14:00 ET, followed by the press conference at 14:30 ET. The events are next watchpoints, not explanations for the small late change.

The comparison is still missing

CME FedWatch describes its figures as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its rechecked overview still kept the live outcome grid inside an unreadable iframe. This note therefore gives no current CME percentage and no cross-market spread.

Source boundary

A rate-odds headline can become a claim about a policy decision, a yield move, or a personal trade before its source and time are clear. This note records one venue’s named rows and leaves those further claims unmade.