Research note · September 12, 2026 · 13:34 UTC
The hike row is 79%; the decision is the next test
Answer. When accessed at 13:34 UTC on September 12, the directly inspected Polymarket contract displayed 79% for a 25-basis-point increase and 20% for no change at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. At 19:06 UTC on September 11, the same named rows were 82% and 18%, so the changes are −3 and +2 percentage points. This is a measured change in rounded displayed rows, not an explanation of why traders repriced them.
The measure and its rule
The contract resolves on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range versus its pre-meeting level, using the FOMC statement as its named resolution source. Its page did not display a separate quote timestamp, so 13:34 UTC is the pool’s access time. The page also displayed 50+ bp-increase and decrease rows; rounded displayed rows are not an exact 100% distribution.
A current comparator is still missing
CME FedWatch describes its figures as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its live grid was not directly readable in this environment. Axios reported an 85% CME FedWatch hike probability after the September 11 CPI release, but the inspected article does not give a directly inspectable grid or a matched observation time. It is context, not a current cross-market spread.
What can test the price next
The FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections are scheduled for September 16 at 14:00 ET, followed by the press conference at 14:30 ET. The statement is the authoritative outcome for the contract; the projections and press conference can matter for interpreting what follows. No new official economic release or Fed communication observed in this check establishes why the named contract rows changed.