Research note · September 13, 2026 · 13:39 UTC
Two event markets put the 25 bp hike near 80%
Answer. When accessed at 13:39 UTC on September 13, Polymarket’s public Economy listing displayed 78% for a 25-basis-point increase and 22% for no change in its named “Fed Decision in September?” market. Kalshi’s direct September event page displayed main chance rows of 79% for “Hike 25bps” and 21% for “Fed maintains rate.” The leading named rows are close, but they are separate venue-specific event contracts, not a consensus or a CME futures-implied figure.
One listing eased; it did not explain itself
Polymarket’s same listing showed 80% for a 25 bp increase and 21% for no change when the pool accessed it at 19:09 UTC on September 12. The named rows are now -2 and +1 percentage points. That is an observed update, not evidence that a particular release, official, or cross-asset move caused it. The listing did not show a separate quote timestamp, and rounded rows should not be forced into a 100% total.
Read each rule as its own instrument
Polymarket’s underlying contract resolves on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range versus the pre-meeting level and names the FOMC statement as its source. The Kalshi event page identifies a September 16 start. Kalshi’s CFTC-filed FEDDECISION rulebook says the generic series uses FOMC target-range decisions as its underlying and the Federal Reserve System as source agency; the direct September page did not expose its full series-specific terms in this environment. Its 79% heading also appeared with a separate 80¢ Yes quote, so this note reports the main heading rather than inventing a more precise price.
The futures comparison remains absent
CME FedWatch says its probabilities are implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its live outcome grid remained unreadable in this check. No current CME number or cross-market spread is reported.
Decision-day sequence
BLS schedules August U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for September 16 at 08:30 ET. The Federal Reserve calendar lists the FOMC statement and projections at 14:00 ET, then the press conference at 14:30 ET. Those are the next official watchpoints, not explanations for today’s snapshots.
Source boundary
Agreement between two named event-market rows may be useful context. It does not turn either price into a policy forecast, a personal trade instruction, or a single all-market probability.