Research note · September 14, 2026 · 19:06 UTC
Kalshi’s direct 25 bp-hike heading moved to 85%; Polymarket stayed at 80%
Answer. When checked at 19:06 UTC on September 14, the direct Polymarket September event page displayed 80% for a 25-basis-point increase and 19% for no change. The direct Kalshi September event page displayed an 85% main chance heading for “Hike 25bps” and 14% for “Fed maintains rate.” These are separate event-contract readings, not a Federal Reserve forecast, a consensus, or a CME futures-implied figure.
The usable change is inside each venue
Polymarket showed the same named 80% hike row and 19% no-change row at the pool’s previous direct-page check at 13:34 UTC. Kalshi’s prior direct-page headings were 83% for “Hike 25bps” and 18% for “Fed maintains rate,” so its selected headings changed by +2 and −4 percentage points. Neither event page displayed a separate quote timestamp; these comparisons use the pool’s page-access times.
Do not turn the two pages into a third number
Polymarket’s selected rows are rounded; its direct page also listed 1% for a 50+ bp increase and less than 1% for two decrease rows. Kalshi’s renderer showed 2% for “Hike >25bps” and a “2 more” control. No residual, exact outcome distribution, cross-market average, or tradeable spread is calculated.
Rules and the missing futures check
Polymarket resolves its September market on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range versus the level before the meeting, using the FOMC statement as its named source. CME FedWatch identifies its figures as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures, but the live outcome grid remained unreadable through its embedded tool at this check. No current CME figure is reported.
The next official sequence is still tomorrow
BLS schedules August U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for September 16 at 08:30 ET. The Federal Reserve calendar lists the FOMC statement at 14:00 ET and the press conference at 14:30 ET. The Kalshi change follows the earlier pool check; it does not establish why the heading changed or what the Committee will decide.
What this reading does not answer
It does not decide a portfolio action, prove a policy outcome, or settle an oil, bond, political, or equity-market story. It records two identified contract surfaces, the measured within-venue change, and the next official time when the question becomes testable.