Research note · September 20, 2026 · 13:37 UTC
Kalshi’s named October hike row edges to 55%; Polymarket holds at 56%
Answer. When checked at 13:37 UTC on September 20, the direct Kalshi October event page displayed 55% for “Hike 25bps” and 45% for “Fed maintains rate.” The direct Polymarket October contract displayed 56% for a 25 bp increase and 44% for no change. Kalshi’s named hike row was 1 percentage point higher than the pool’s September 19 evening check; Polymarket’s leading rows were unchanged. This is a small within-venue movement, not a consensus, a futures-implied estimate, or a forecast from the Federal Reserve.
The leader did not change
Kalshi’s separately displayed “Hike >25bps” row was 1%, down from 2%, and the page still hid two outcomes. The pool records the displayed rows rather than building a total from incomplete or rounded headings. Neither event page supplied a separate reliable quote time, so 13:37 UTC is the pool access time.
Polymarket’s rows were unchanged; its generated story is excluded
Polymarket’s named 56% and 44% rows match the pool’s September 19 evening direct check. Its rules define the event by the change in the upper bound of the target range against the pre-meeting level and name the October FOMC statement as the resolution source. The page also displayed experimental generated narrative. It is not used to explain the rows, the September decision, or an asset move.
One practical scope test
A completed September decision, an October-only event contract, and a later stock move are three different questions. For the decision, read the official statement. For the contract, read the exact venue row and rule. For an asset-cause story, require a time-matched asset record and competing explanations; this check has neither, so it does not assign a cause.
CME is still a separate, unfilled comparison
CME FedWatch says it tracks probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its direct live October outcome grid was not readable in this check. The pool therefore does not substitute a third-party number or calculate a spread against either event contract.
Next official times
The BEA schedule lists second-quarter U.S. International Transactions and Investment Position on September 24 at 08:30 ET. The BLS calendar lists August JOLTS on September 29 at 10:00 ET, followed by August Personal Income and Outlays on September 30 at 08:30 ET. The FOMC calendar lists the next meeting on October 27–28. These are future information times, not explanations of today’s readings.