Research note · September 20, 2026 · 19:08 UTC
Kalshi reaches 56%; Polymarket’s 56% October hike row holds
Answer. When checked at 19:08 UTC on September 20, the direct Kalshi October event page displayed 56% for “Hike 25bps” and 45% for “Fed maintains rate.” The direct Polymarket October contract displayed 56% for a 25 bp increase and 44% for no change. Kalshi’s named hike row was 1 percentage point higher than the pool’s 13:37 UTC check; Polymarket’s leading rows were unchanged. This small within-venue move leaves the identified leader unchanged. It is not a consensus, a futures-implied estimate, or a Federal Reserve forecast.
Kalshi’s headline rows moved by one point
Kalshi’s separately displayed “Hike >25bps” row remained 1%, and the page still hid two outcomes. The pool records displayed rows rather than building a total from incomplete or rounded headings. Neither event page supplied a separate reliable quote time, so 19:08 UTC is the pool access time.
Polymarket’s leading rows held; generated narrative is excluded
Polymarket’s named 56% and 44% rows match the pool’s 13:37 UTC direct check. Its contract rule defines the result by the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range against the level before the October meeting and names the October FOMC statement as the resolution source. The page also carries experimental generated narrative. It is not used to explain the rows, the September decision, or an asset move.
A practical test for an asset story
A completed September decision, an October-only event contract, and a later stock move are three different questions. For the decision, read the official statement. For the contract, read the exact venue row and rule. For an asset-cause story, require a time-matched asset record and competing explanations; this check has neither, so it does not assign a cause.
CME remains a separate, unfilled comparison
CME FedWatch says it tracks probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its direct live October outcome grid was not readable in this check. The pool therefore does not substitute a third-party number or calculate a spread against either event contract.
Next official times
The BLS calendar lists August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September 29 at 10:00 ET. The Federal Reserve October calendar lists minutes of the September 15–16 meeting at 14:00 ET on October 7, the Beige Book at 14:00 ET on October 14, and the October 27–28 meeting with its October 28 press conference. These are future information times, not explanations of today’s readings.