Research note · September 24, 2026 · 19:06 UTC

October’s named 25 bp-hike leads widen on both direct event pages

At 19:06 UTC on September 24, the direct Kalshi October event page displayed 65% for “Hike 25bps” and 35% for “Fed maintains rate.” The direct Polymarket October contract displayed 66% for a 25 bp increase and 34% for no change. Since the pool’s 13:35 UTC access, both named hike rows rose 2 percentage points. These are separate event-contract readings, not a consensus or a futures-implied estimate.

The named leads widened

Kalshi’s named hike lead over maintain rate widened from 28 to 30 points. Polymarket’s named hike lead over no change widened from 28 to 32 points. Kalshi still indicates two hidden outcomes. Polymarket shows smaller outcomes separately, and displayed rows can be rounded. The pool does not derive a full distribution.

The page time is the pool access time

Neither page supplied a separate reliable quote time. The comparisons are between two pool accesses, not continuous price paths, so they do not identify why either venue moved. Polymarket’s rules define its outcomes by the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range and name the October FOMC statement as the resolution source. Its adjacent experimental AI summary is not used as evidence.

CME remains an unfilled comparison

CME FedWatch describes its figures as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its direct live October grid was not readable in this check. The pool therefore shows no current CME percentage and no cross-venue spread.

Next official checkpoint

The next scheduled FOMC meeting is October 27–28, 2026, according to the Federal Reserve calendar. The event rows cover that one decision; they do not forecast a year-end policy path or an asset price.