Research note · September 24, 2026 · 13:35 UTC
October’s named 25 bp-hike leads narrow to 28 points on both direct event pages
At 13:35 UTC on September 24, the direct Kalshi October event page displayed 63% for “Hike 25bps,” 35% for “Fed maintains rate,” and 2% for “Hike >25bps.” The direct Polymarket October contract displayed 64% for a 25 bp increase and 36% for no change. Compared with the pool’s 19:04 UTC access on September 23, the named hike rows were 3 and 4 percentage points lower. These are separate event-contract readings, not a consensus or a futures-implied estimate.
The named leads narrowed, but did not switch
Kalshi’s named hike lead over maintain rate narrowed from 34 to 28 points. Polymarket’s named hike lead over no change narrowed from 35 to 28 points. Kalshi still indicates two hidden outcomes. Polymarket shows smaller outcomes separately, and displayed rows can be rounded. The pool does not derive a full distribution.
A morning official release does not explain the rows
At 08:30 EDT, BEA reported that the U.S. current-account deficit widened $33.4 billion to $246.0 billion in the second quarter. The pool did not capture market rows immediately before and after that release. Its publication is context, not an explanation for the later contract readings.
These contracts cover one October decision
Polymarket’s rules define its outcomes by the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range and name the October FOMC statement as the resolution source. Kalshi presents named outcome headings. Neither page answers a year-end policy path or forecasts an asset price.
CME remains an unfilled comparison
CME FedWatch describes its figures as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its direct live October grid was not readable in this check. The pool therefore shows no current CME percentage and no cross-venue spread.
Next official time
The BLS calendar lists the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August at 10:00 ET on September 29. The BEA schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays for August at 08:30 ET on September 30. These are future information times, not forecasts or causal claims.