Research note · September 25, 2026 · 19:06 UTC
Kalshi names a 69% October hold; Polymarket still names a 63% hike
Answer. At 19:06 UTC on September 25, the October Kalshi event page showed 69% for “Fed maintains rate” and 29% for “Hike 25bps” in its named Chance headings. The direct Polymarket October contract showed 63% for a 25 bp increase and 37% for no change. The named leaders now differ by venue. These are separate event-contract observations, not a consensus or a futures-implied estimate.
One venue reversed its named leader
Since the pool’s 13:33 UTC access, Kalshi’s named 25 bp-hike heading fell 38 percentage points and its named maintain-rate heading rose 36 points. The maintain-rate heading leads the named hike heading by 40 points. The same crawl also rendered a different displayed Yes price beside the hike heading, so this note reports the named Chance headings and does not convert that mixed display into a precise price path or full distribution.
Polymarket’s named 25 bp-increase row fell 4 points and its named no-change row rose 4 points from 13:33 UTC. The 25 bp increase remains its named leader by 26 points. Smaller Polymarket outcomes are displayed separately; its experimental AI narrative is excluded from this observation.
The split is an observation, not a trade signal
Neither page supplied a separate reliable quote time, so 19:06 UTC is the pool access time. The two checks do not form a continuous record and do not show why either venue moved. Different named outcomes on different event pages do not establish a tradable spread, a pooled probability, or an explanation for an asset price.
CME remains a separate missing comparison
CME FedWatch says its probabilities are implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its live October outcome grid was still unreadable in this check. The pool shows no current CME percentage and no spread against either event contract.
Next scheduled checkpoints
The BLS calendar lists August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data for September 29 at 10:00 ET and the September Employment Situation for October 2 at 08:30 ET. The BEA schedule lists August Personal Income and Outlays for September 30 at 08:30 ET. The Federal Reserve calendar lists the October 27–28 meeting. These are future information times, not explanations for the current rows.